NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	90		Excitement	7.7 [312]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +25.1%
San Antonio Spurs	85		Comeback	4.4 [158]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -17.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	-0.02	0.14	-0.00	11	45%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.06,0.12	0.15	-0.01	0.03	23	69%	0.27	4	-0.15	6	100%	0.04
Greg Buckner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	0.00	6	40%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
DeSagana Diop	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	16	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Devin Harris	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	9	29%	-0.13	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.14	0.12	0.01	11	76%	0.38	3	-0.13	11	82%	0.05
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.00	7	100%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	13	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	6	36%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.15	0.01	11	51%	0.01	3	-0.18	13	46%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	33.5	18.6	29.2	2.5	33.9	145.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +10.7%

SAS -11.6%

DAL +43.4%

DAL +11.1%

SAS -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.5	17.2	15.4	107.1	103.7	104.5
season	16.3	16.2		108.7	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		98.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.6	18.1	18.6	16.9	17.5
SAS	15.4	18.8	17.4	17.4	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	50	50	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-5	15	17.8	17.1	0.78	17.2	17.1	0.08
Devean George	40	37	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.47	6	-1	7	16.2	18.7	-2.57	17.6	16.8	0.87
Dirk Nowitzki	71	69	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.40	8	-3	11	18.5	12.4	6.08	17.1	17.6	-0.53
Jason Terry	72	72	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-5	15	18.3	12.7	5.67	17.1	17.6	-0.49
Josh Howard	68	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	-1	7	17.5	17.6	-0.05	16.8	18.8	-2.01
Erick Dampier	21	23	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	3	-1	18.1	17.3	0.76	16.4	17.5	-1.08
Greg Buckner	26	26	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	1	3	17.8	17.4	0.36	16.9	17.3	-0.42
Anthony Johnson	13	12	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	13	-21	14.3	18.1	-3.80	17.7	17.1	0.58
DeSagana Diop	39	38	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.12	-4	9	-13	16.7	18.2	-1.55	17.6	16.8	0.76
Jerry Stackhouse	20	18	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	14	-23	16.0	18.0	-2.00	18.4	16.8	1.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	20	22	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.09	9	-14	23	17.2	17.1	0.10	15.5	18.2	-2.68
Robert Horry	39	38	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-5	5	16.7	17.6	-0.96	17.2	17.8	-0.52
Matt Bonner	5	4	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-5	5	18.6	17.1	1.52	15.0	17.6	-2.65
Fabricio Oberto	33	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	18.1	16.5	1.59	16.1	18.7	-2.58
Michael Finley	34	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-2	-1	18.2	16.4	1.77	16.0	18.7	-2.77
Brent Barry	32	32	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	18.9	16.1	2.85	17.6	17.5	0.16
Manu Ginobili	60	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-4	3	16.3	19.6	-3.37	17.3	18.3	-1.02
Tim Duncan	66	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.34	-5	0	-5	16.5	19.9	-3.36	18.8	12.9	5.83
Bruce Bowen	59	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.38	-6	1	-7	17.0	17.7	-0.73	18.6	15.0	3.54
Tony Parker	62	62	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.26	-14	9	-23	17.1	17.2	-0.10	18.2	15.5	2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.39,0.32,0.55,0.43,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 111, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.31,0.46,0.32,0.04,0	93.4%
ATL 102, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.25,0.02,0	91.7%
SAC 92, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	91.3%