NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	102		Excitement	7.1 [372]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +37.6%
Boston Celtics	96		Comeback	6.4 [98]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -16.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.38	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.20	0.19	0.02	25	67%	0.40	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.14,0.26,0.26	0.04	0.21	-0.02	13	50%	0.26	0	0.00	8	87%	0.06
Josh Smith	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.12	0.00	11	52%	0.16	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Marvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	48%	0.05	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Al Horford	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	11	35%	-0.05	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.09	0.22	-0.00	6	72%	0.33	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.05
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.01	10	70%	0.19	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.02	4	112%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.01	20	62%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.09	-0.01	15	63%	0.13	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	55%	0.06	6	-0.17	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.3	27.5	15.6	31.2	2.5	32.2	140.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -8.9%

ATL +3.3%

ATL +14.5%

ATL +39.0%

ATL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	17.1	16.4	15.3	118.6	111.6	106.0
season	16.0	15.5		109.4	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.8		102.1	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	18.8	17.5	16.4	15.6	17.1
BOS	13.1	16.0	17.0	19.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	76	74	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.24	24	-18	42	16.6	21.4	-4.83	16.6	14.7	1.97
Josh Smith	75	74	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.22	19	-13	32	16.9	18.8	-1.94	16.8	13.9	2.84
Joe Johnson	75	74	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-6	18	17.3	16.0	1.29	16.9	13.3	3.52
Jamal Crawford	57	59	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.40	7	-1	8	16.1	19.2	-3.14	16.9	15.1	1.82
Marvin Williams	73	73	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.23	9	-3	12	17.3	16.4	0.88	16.1	17.8	-1.75
Joe Smith	7	7	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.16	-12	18	-30	21.7	16.7	4.99	14.3	16.5	-2.26
Mike Bibby	32	31	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.09	-4	10	-14	19.0	16.0	2.98	14.8	17.2	-2.43
Maurice Evans	24	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	15	-24	16.2	17.5	-1.28	15.7	16.6	-0.96
Zaza Pachulia	11	13	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.04	-16	22	-38	19.8	16.7	3.08	14.8	16.6	-1.87

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	37	38	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.01	9	-15	24	14.8	17.6	-2.81	18.8	15.8	2.98
Shelden Williams	11	10	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-11	16	14.4	16.7	-2.29	17.2	17.1	0.08
Tony Allen	16	15	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.05	1	-7	8	15.7	16.5	-0.83	17.4	17.1	0.33
Eddie House	23	22	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.05	1	-7	8	15.4	16.7	-1.32	17.6	17.0	0.62
Ray Allen	75	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-4	2	16.4	15.9	0.52	17.4	15.3	2.07
Rajon Rondo	80	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.29	-8	2	-10	16.6	13.0	3.61	17.2	15.8	1.39
Paul Pierce	75	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	1	-8	16.4	15.9	0.52	16.9	18.5	-1.55
Kendrick Perkins	74	75	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.27	-13	7	-20	16.7	14.2	2.45	17.1	17.5	-0.48
Glen Davis	50	49	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.33	-13	7	-20	17.5	14.8	2.67	15.9	18.7	-2.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.25,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 111, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.31,0.46,0.32,0.04,0	93.4%
SAC 92, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	92.5%
ATL 97, NJN 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.69,0.74,0.65,0.74,0.84,0.79,0.79,0.63,0.69,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.04,0	92.3%