NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	96		Excitement	8.2 [237]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +37.2%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	1.6 [534]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -37.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.37	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.37,0.37	0.14	0.24	0.01	16	76%	0.49	5	-0.12	9	78%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.10	0.00	9	64%	0.19	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Ike Diogu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	82%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Keith McLeod	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	13	46%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	2	29%	-0.02	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	9	50%	-0.08	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.38	-0.20	-0.18	-0.00	19	24%	-0.29	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.04	0.11	-0.00	12	38%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	8	70%	0.15	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.04
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allan Ray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.09	4	-0.10	7	43%	-0.12
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	14	55%	0.07	5	-0.11	3	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.17,-0.24	-0.24	0.08	-0.29	0.04	19	63%	-0.01	4	-0.23	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	30.6	15.7	27.7	2.4	35.8	142.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -11.8%

GSW +6.0%

BOS -6.8%

GSW +18.1%

GSW +44.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	14.6	15.4	101.1	99.0	104.5
season	13.5	15.5		105.7	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.2		105.2	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	14.4	17.3	16.8	15.5
BOS	15.4	12.7	14.0	16.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	69	70	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-6	13	16.0	14.3	1.62	15.4	12.6	2.82
Baron Davis	87	89	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.43	5	-4	9	15.7	14.0	1.67	14.9	11.7	3.15
Jason Richardson	82	82	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	2	-3	16.0	12.7	3.28	14.7	14.4	0.33
Mike Dunleavy	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	1	-1	16.0	14.6	1.46	14.5	14.8	-0.26
Mickael Pietrus	75	76	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.50	-5	6	-11	15.6	15.2	0.41	14.5	15.0	-0.52
Matt Barnes	52	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	-6	13	14.6	16.7	-2.10	14.8	14.5	0.31
Keith McLeod	9	10	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	1	-1	14.4	15.6	-1.20	15.9	14.5	1.41
Adonal Foyle	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	1	-1	0.0	15.7	-15.69	6.0	14.7	-8.73
Monta Ellis	14	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	3	-5	13.5	15.9	-2.38	12.3	15.0	-2.69
Ike Diogu	25	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	7	-13	14.9	15.7	-0.82	12.8	15.3	-2.43

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leon Powe	29	29	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.02	8	-9	17	13.8	15.0	-1.21	15.2	15.7	-0.46
Rajon Rondo	11	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-1	1	12.1	15.0	-2.87	13.5	15.9	-2.38
Allan Ray	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-1	1	6.0	14.7	-8.73	0.0	15.7	-15.69
Ryan Gomes	67	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	0	-1	14.7	14.5	0.22	16.2	14.1	2.04
Delonte West	68	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.50	9	-10	19	14.9	14.1	0.80	15.7	15.1	0.66
Tony Allen	74	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.41	2	-3	5	14.8	14.1	0.71	15.7	14.9	0.79
Gerald Green	38	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-4	7	14.6	14.6	-0.01	15.0	15.9	-0.92
Sebastian Telfair	47	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	11	-23	14.3	14.9	-0.62	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Paul Pierce	89	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	3	-7	14.9	11.0	3.92	15.8	13.0	2.82
Al Jefferson	56	55	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.36	-10	9	-19	15.0	14.2	0.79	15.6	15.4	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.05,0.15,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.04,0,0,0	92.5%
LAC 124, PHX 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.29,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.28,0.4,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.06,0.01,0	92.5%
SAC 96, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.14,0.02,0.01,0.02,0	92.4%