NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	96		Excitement	6.3 [557]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (SAC): +17.3%
Golden State Warriors	93		Comeback	2.2 [279]		LVP	Jason Hart (SAC): -14.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.02	16	61%	0.19	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.01	9	65%	0.19	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.07
Metta World Peace	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	9	65%	0.16	2	-0.07	8	75%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	16	66%	0.17	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.02	7	71%	0.11	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	8	41%	0.08	1	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05
Francisco Garcia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.04	0.04	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.02	0.04	14	80%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	13	46%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	17	46%	-0.00	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	9	32%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	36%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	28.2	16.5	26.3	2.7	38.2	135.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +13.0%

SAC +32.0%

SAC +6.5%

GSW -1.7%

SAC +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	15.6	99.0	97.9	104.4
season	15.3	14.8		104.7	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.0	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.7	15.5	14.8	15.7	15.2
GSW	16.0	16.5	15.2	11.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bonzi Wells	77	76	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.35	16	-13	29	14.9	16.2	-1.35	15.4	12.4	3.07
Metta World Peace	86	86	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.30	17	-14	31	15.5	13.0	2.45	15.0	12.9	2.13
Brad Miller	86	85	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-7	17	15.0	16.5	-1.44	14.5	17.3	-2.77
Mike Bibby	84	81	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.48	-4	7	-11	15.2	15.3	-0.15	14.2	18.2	-3.98
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	39	38	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	-2	7	16.1	14.6	1.55	15.4	14.4	1.04
Kenny Thomas	63	61	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.42	-10	13	-23	14.7	16.1	-1.41	14.6	15.3	-0.74
Francisco Garcia	28	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.26	-14	17	-31	13.6	15.8	-2.25	13.8	15.2	-1.34
Jason Hart	24	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	8	-13	16.1	14.9	1.26	15.5	14.6	0.87

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	30	33	0.24	-0.74	0.99	-0.11	12	-15	27	13.5	15.4	-1.88	15.1	15.2	-0.08
Mickael Pietrus	44	46	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.26	8	-11	19	13.5	16.0	-2.46	14.4	15.9	-1.53
Zarko Cabarkapa	4	3	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	0	-3	13.0	14.9	-1.90	18.3	15.1	3.26
Ike Diogu	7	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	3	-9	16.1	14.7	1.43	13.7	15.3	-1.55
Monta Ellis	38	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-3	3	14.4	15.1	-0.62	15.6	14.9	0.74
Troy Murphy	60	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-5	7	15.5	13.7	1.75	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Derek Fisher	85	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-3	3	14.4	18.3	-3.89	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Mike Dunleavy	80	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.46	-2	-1	-1	14.9	14.1	0.82	14.9	16.7	-1.76
Jason Richardson	74	76	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.35	-7	4	-11	14.7	15.1	-0.35	15.6	13.8	1.80
Adonal Foyle	53	52	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.09	-19	16	-35	16.7	12.4	4.29	15.7	14.6	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.14,0.02,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 103, CHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.4%
GSW 96, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.05,0.15,0.16,0	92.4%
LAL 102, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0	92.2%