NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	5.0 [827]		MVP	Sean May (CHA): +21.8%
Charlotte Bobcats	99		Comeback	1.5 [803]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -16.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Diener	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.17	0.01	0.09	6	107%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	12	48%	0.07	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	13	65%	0.11	5	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.03	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	7	45%	-0.05	6	-0.11	8	25%	-0.10

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean May	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.04	0.00	15	68%	0.22	1	-0.00	17	82%	0.01
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	12	76%	0.18	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	12	46%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	9	59%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	12	43%	0.00	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	7	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.7	32.2	19.6	27.3	3.5	33.5	142.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +3.4%

CHA +9.4%

CHA +15.0%

CHA +22.5%

ORL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	15.1	15.0	15.4	93.7	103.1	104.5
season	15.9	15.7		103.4	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.7		105.6	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.8	17.6	14.2	15.2	15.1
CHA	15.6	13.8	14.6	16.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	28	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-10	10	14.1	15.6	-1.50	15.0	15.0	0.01
Bo Outlaw	28	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-7	4	14.5	15.4	-0.94	15.4	14.9	0.56
Pat Garrity	20	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.11	-9	-1	-8	17.0	14.6	2.44	13.9	15.3	-1.44
Keyon Dooling	73	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-9	8	14.4	17.5	-3.09	15.2	14.5	0.75
Carlos Arroyo	52	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.00	-8	-2	-6	14.9	15.3	-0.41	13.5	17.0	-3.46
Dwight Howard	73	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-6	2	14.9	16.0	-1.14	15.1	14.9	0.22
Travis Diener	49	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-6	2	15.4	14.8	0.67	16.2	13.8	2.40
JJ Redick	38	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	1	-12	16.4	14.3	2.11	15.6	14.6	0.98
Darko Milicic	51	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-7	4	15.3	15.0	0.32	15.6	14.4	1.23
Trevor Ariza	63	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-3	-4	15.4	14.5	0.90	14.5	16.0	-1.48

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	68	66	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-4	18	15.0	15.1	-0.16	15.4	14.5	0.88
Adam Morrison	63	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	3	4	15.0	15.1	-0.14	15.9	13.6	2.33
Emeka Okafor	82	82	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.23	5	5	0	14.9	15.7	-0.80	14.9	16.4	-1.46
Sean May	60	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	15.4	14.3	1.12	15.2	15.0	0.24
Raymond Felton	76	75	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.26	0	10	-10	15.4	13.6	1.81	14.7	16.8	-2.12
Matt Carroll	16	16	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	3	4	13.9	15.3	-1.39	18.1	14.5	3.61
Gerald Wallace	70	70	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	9	-8	15.0	15.1	-0.06	13.9	18.4	-4.50
Primoz Brezec	38	37	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	6	-2	14.3	15.5	-1.14	15.2	15.1	0.15
Jake Voskuhl	7	6	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	5	0	16.1	14.9	1.20	16.5	15.0	1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 81, MIL 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.84,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.9%
TOR 98, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DAL 93, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%