NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	4.2 [978]		MVP	Darko Milicic (ORL): +2.5%
Utah Jazz	75		Comeback	1.2 [395]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -14.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	62%	0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	11	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	10	59%	0.05	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	16	81%	0.03
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	19	37%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	8	31%	-0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	6	61%	0.03	4	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	56%	0.03	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	9	54%	0.01	4	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	22	45%	-0.03	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	10	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	31.2	15.8	24.2	2.4	32.2	132.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +6.4%

ORL +6.2%

ORL +21.4%

ORL +16.3%

UTA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	UTA	NBA	ORL	UTA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.0	15.4	96.7	83.3	104.5
season	15.9	15.9		103.4	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.7		104.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.0	18.7	16.9	17.9	16.8
UTA	15.4	14.0	16.6	14.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	57	55	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	3	7	16.7	17.0	-0.25	15.0	15.0	0.00
Trevor Ariza	40	42	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	5	3	18.0	15.9	2.16	14.7	15.3	-0.63
Darko Milicic	43	40	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.14	17	-4	21	16.8	16.8	-0.04	15.5	14.6	0.90
Grant Hill	62	63	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	9	-5	17.3	15.7	1.60	14.3	16.7	-2.38
Dwight Howard	74	74	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.21	2	11	-9	17.3	14.6	2.74	14.3	18.4	-4.18
Bo Outlaw	18	17	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.12	13	0	13	16.4	16.9	-0.53	19.1	14.1	5.00
Keyon Dooling	33	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.12	12	1	11	16.5	17.0	-0.52	16.3	14.3	1.92
Hedo Turkoglu	48	45	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	13	-13	15.2	18.6	-3.35	15.2	14.8	0.44
Carlos Arroyo	34	35	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	10	-7	17.0	16.7	0.25	15.0	15.0	-0.00
Tony Battie	46	48	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.23	-4	17	-21	16.3	17.3	-0.99	14.5	15.6	-1.07

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dee Brown	2	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-13	13	6.0	15.2	-9.20	24.0	16.7	7.27
CJ Miles	4	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	-10	7	8.5	15.3	-6.80	17.7	16.8	0.88
Jarron Collins	19	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-7	1	15.3	14.9	0.33	15.8	17.1	-1.29
Gordan Giricek	19	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-5	-3	16.4	14.6	1.73	14.5	17.4	-2.89
Matt Harpring	52	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-9	5	14.0	16.4	-2.46	17.7	15.6	2.10
Paul Millsap	14	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-4	-5	18.5	14.4	4.14	15.7	17.0	-1.37
Deron Williams	55	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-11	9	14.2	16.2	-2.01	17.9	14.9	2.99
Andrei Kirilenko	67	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-11	9	14.8	15.6	-0.76	17.4	14.9	2.57
Derek Fisher	35	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	1	-15	16.9	13.8	3.09	14.6	18.2	-3.60
Carlos Boozer	76	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-9	5	14.4	18.5	-4.14	17.0	15.7	1.37
Ronnie Brewer	38	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-4	-5	16.4	14.0	2.46	15.6	17.7	-2.10
Mehmet Okur	69	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-9	5	15.0	14.9	0.19	17.1	15.6	1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 111, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.7%
ATL 91, DET 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%
MIA 105, CHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%