NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	4.5 [908]		MVP	Corliss Williamson (DET): +9.1%
Detroit Pistons	82		Comeback	1.2 [500]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -15.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.04	17	57%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	-0.01	0.05	13	73%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Dan Dickau	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.08	17	39%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	67%	0.03	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	12	74%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	8	37%	0.01	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	47%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	10	46%	0.00	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	9	38%	-0.08	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.5	29.1	15.5	24.5	1.7	32.3	135.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +37.8%

ATL +2.9%

ATL +3.9%

ATL +8.9%

DET -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	16.1	15.7	102.2	93.2	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		98.2	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.5		92.6	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.4	15.4	18.3	19.2	16.4
DET	16.6	16.6	16.0	15.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	80	79	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	0	9	16.4	17.2	-0.86	16.2	15.0	1.22
Stephen Jackson	64	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.23	7	2	5	17.3	14.4	2.91	16.5	15.1	1.36
Theo Ratliff	68	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	1	7	16.2	17.4	-1.22	16.1	16.0	0.12
Chris Crawford	30	31	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.04	10	-1	11	15.5	16.9	-1.48	17.6	15.2	2.40
Jacque Vaughn	47	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	6	-3	16.9	16.0	0.94	14.7	17.6	-2.91
Nazr Mohammed	20	20	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	6	-3	17.8	16.1	1.74	16.4	16.0	0.46
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	64	62	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.20	-1	10	-11	16.5	16.4	0.01	15.3	17.9	-2.60
Boris Diaw	52	51	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	5	-1	15.7	17.6	-1.91	16.0	16.2	-0.12
Dan Dickau	20	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	7	-5	16.3	16.5	-0.19	17.1	15.7	1.39

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	14	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-8	7	14.6	16.4	-1.81	13.7	17.0	-3.25
Bob Sura	33	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-11	13	16.5	15.9	0.63	16.7	16.3	0.47
Darvin Ham	15	15	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-4	-1	17.6	15.8	1.82	14.4	16.9	-2.46
Chucky Atkins	37	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-10	11	15.8	16.3	-0.58	17.5	15.7	1.76
Mehmet Okur	22	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-1	-7	17.7	15.6	2.12	17.6	16.1	1.50
Corliss Williamson	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-7	5	16.1	16.1	-0.06	17.1	15.6	1.51
Tayshaun Prince	62	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-4	-1	15.7	17.1	-1.40	16.1	17.5	-1.44
Ben Wallace	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-5	1	15.7	19.2	-3.49	16.6	15.3	1.29
Chauncey Billups	68	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.14	-10	1	-11	16.2	15.8	0.38	16.2	17.4	-1.24
Richard Hamilton	63	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	4	-17	16.3	15.6	0.69	16.4	16.7	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 104, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
LAC 114, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
LAC 105, LAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.1%