NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	4.9 [881]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +13.9%
Chicago Bulls	81		Comeback	1.2 [536]		LVP	Eddy Curry (CHI): -21.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.03	11	78%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.16	0.01	0.12	13	82%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Person	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	11	45%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	0.01	-0.06	12	47%	0.06	5	-0.12	8	37%	-0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	14	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	12	61%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	11	68%	0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	26%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	13	44%	-0.00	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	12	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Eddy Curry	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	6	21%	-0.11	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	24.5	15.4	24.6	2.5	27.3	124.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.6%

MIA +10.7%

CHI -1.7%

CHI -2.8%

MIA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.5	112.9	89.0	104.0
season	15.7	15.1		107.9	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		98.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	14.3	16.8	18.5	16.2
CHI	14.3	13.3	16.7	16.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	67	67	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.18	28	-4	32	15.7	17.3	-1.61	15.6	13.8	1.73
Damon Jones	49	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.12	17	7	10	16.2	16.1	0.09	15.0	15.2	-0.19
Shaquille O'Neal	60	60	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.14	15	9	6	15.7	17.1	-1.45	15.1	15.2	-0.08
Wesley Person	68	65	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	16	-8	16.2	16.2	-0.02	15.4	14.4	1.02
Christian Laettner	54	52	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.29	19	5	14	16.7	15.5	1.15	14.8	15.6	-0.79
Udonis Haslem	42	42	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	16	-8	15.7	16.5	-0.81	15.1	15.1	-0.03
Michael Doleac	30	28	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	18	-12	17.0	15.8	1.16	15.8	14.8	1.03
Dwyane Wade	73	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.09	9	15	-6	16.7	14.3	2.40	15.1	15.0	0.08
Shandon Anderson	16	17	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.14	10	14	-4	14.4	16.5	-2.11	13.6	15.5	-1.87
Keyon Dooling	6	6	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.13	0	24	-24	19.3	16.0	3.37	11.7	15.4	-3.69

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Piatkowski	6	6	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.13	0	-24	24	11.7	15.4	-3.69	19.3	16.0	3.37
Adrian Griffin	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-26	28	17.7	14.9	2.82	18.3	16.0	2.27
Frank Williams	15	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.17	-6	-18	12	14.9	15.2	-0.29	18.8	15.6	3.18
Othella Harrington	36	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-19	14	15.7	14.7	1.01	16.2	16.2	-0.03
Ben Gordon	48	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.13	-12	-12	0	14.4	15.9	-1.47	15.4	17.0	-1.53
Tyson Chandler	50	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.27	-17	-7	-10	15.5	14.6	0.95	16.6	15.7	0.91
Kirk Hinrich	72	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-11	-2	15.0	15.7	-0.73	16.4	15.2	1.26
Antonio Davis	33	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-17	10	15.3	15.0	0.35	15.2	16.7	-1.54
Eddy Curry	29	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-14	4	14.5	15.4	-0.87	15.8	16.4	-0.62
Luol Deng	65	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.12	-17	-7	-10	15.1	15.2	-0.17	16.6	15.0	1.62
Chris Duhon	63	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	-9	-6	15.1	15.1	0.00	15.9	16.8	-0.89
Andres Nocioni	31	31	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.18	-20	-4	-16	15.7	14.8	0.96	14.7	16.9	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 99, WAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.18,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.2%
LAL 106, ORL 97	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%
ORL 88, UTA 75	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	94.5%