NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	91		Excitement	7.1 [423]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +20.8%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	2.8 [688]		LVP	Al Harrington (IND): -25.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	83%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jamaal Tinsley	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02	0.10	-0.02	0.07	11	68%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	17	52%	0.08	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.04
Orien Greene	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rawle Marshall	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	5	42%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Sarunas Jasikevicius	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	14	53%	-0.00	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.20	-0.05	0.00	13	15%	-0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.10	0.01	12	67%	0.23	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.02
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.15	0.00	8	55%	0.19	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.01	7	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	31%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	53%	0.03	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	8	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	9	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	12	53%	0.01	5	-0.13	6	33%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	32.5	16.8	29.5	2.5	41.3	151.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.7%

IND -12.3%

IND -6.3%

ORL +11.6%

ORL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ORL	NBA	IND	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.3	15.4	92.9	99.0	104.5
season	15.3	15.9		101.3	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.3		103.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.7	14.6	16.5	15.3	15.3
ORL	13.6	16.0	12.3	15.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	19	18	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.07	1	-6	7	16.5	15.0	1.49	14.0	14.3	-0.32
Orien Greene	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-5	5	0.0	15.3	-15.28	2.0	14.4	-12.39
Marquis Daniels	30	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	15.9	15.0	0.95	14.5	14.2	0.34
Rawle Marshall	38	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.12	3	-8	11	15.8	14.9	0.93	13.6	14.7	-1.16
Jeff Foster	44	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-5	5	15.7	14.9	0.86	13.4	15.0	-1.59
Sarunas Jasikevicius	30	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-8	11	15.0	15.4	-0.45	12.8	14.9	-2.06
Stephen Jackson	75	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-4	3	14.7	17.1	-2.37	14.3	14.0	0.33
Al Harrington	77	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-2	-1	14.8	17.0	-2.13	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Danny Granger	62	62	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	4	-13	14.9	15.9	-0.97	14.5	13.8	0.76
Jamaal Tinsley	49	49	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	4	-13	15.0	15.6	-0.55	15.2	13.3	1.95
Jermaine O'Neal	66	64	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.28	-9	4	-13	15.8	14.1	1.71	15.3	12.2	3.19

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	71	72	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-6	17	14.5	13.5	1.09	15.4	15.0	0.43
Dwight Howard	80	80	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-4	13	14.0	15.5	-1.54	15.3	15.3	-0.07
Jameer Nelson	63	64	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-4	13	14.2	14.4	-0.24	15.2	15.4	-0.25
Darko Milicic	45	46	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.38	-3	8	-11	14.9	13.7	1.26	14.3	16.1	-1.83
Hedo Turkoglu	50	49	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.00	7	-2	9	13.1	15.5	-2.43	17.4	13.2	4.22
Tony Battie	61	61	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	-3	11	14.1	14.5	-0.39	16.4	13.4	2.96
Keyon Dooling	53	55	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.30	-5	10	-15	15.3	13.0	2.39	14.3	16.5	-2.20
Keith Bogans	15	15	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	5	-5	12.7	14.5	-1.80	12.3	15.8	-3.55
Carlos Arroyo	34	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.08	-4	9	-13	14.4	14.2	0.24	15.4	15.2	0.25
Trevor Ariza	13	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	12	-19	14.5	14.2	0.32	12.7	15.7	-2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 90, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.8%
WAS 76, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.94,0.98,1,1	93.7%
HOU 89, CHA 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.85,0.95,1,1,1	93.7%