NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	5.5 [747]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +24.9%
Detroit Pistons	97		Comeback	1.0 [384]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -15.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.20	0.09	0.04	22	71%	0.29	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.06
Mo Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	48%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	59%	0.06	2	-0.06	7	29%	-0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.01	-0.03	21	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	10	30%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.00	0.07	14	62%	0.06	2	-0.02	12	100%	0.05
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	66%	0.13	5	-0.12	12	75%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	12	53%	0.08	5	-0.11	6	50%	-0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	0.05	7	62%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	29.4	14.8	29.3	2.3	38.3	141.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.1%

DET -1.8%

DET -2.1%

MIL +32.4%

DET -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.3	14.6	15.4	109.4	100.0	104.5
season	15.2	16.8		105.3	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		101.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	15.0	14.2	15.7	15.3
DET	13.9	16.3	15.8	12.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	68	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-2	12	15.2	15.4	-0.14	14.5	14.8	-0.29
Mo Williams	65	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	-1	10	15.7	14.4	1.29	14.4	14.9	-0.50
Charlie Bell	56	58	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	2	4	14.3	16.6	-2.29	14.3	14.9	-0.53
Michael Redd	77	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	4	0	15.5	14.6	0.89	14.2	15.9	-1.66
Andrew Bogut	54	54	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	1	6	16.0	14.4	1.53	14.9	14.1	0.83
Ruben Patterson	71	72	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	5	-2	15.3	15.4	-0.09	14.6	14.4	0.27
Brian Skinner	42	42	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.14	1	7	-6	15.1	15.5	-0.39	15.0	14.2	0.74
Steve Blake	32	31	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	9	-10	14.0	16.0	-1.98	14.6	14.5	0.04
Dan Gadzuric	12	13	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	5	-2	16.0	15.2	0.81	15.8	14.4	1.40
Ersan Ilyasova	3	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	10	-12	23.3	15.0	8.30	12.0	14.6	-2.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-9	10	13.6	14.7	-1.04	13.5	15.5	-1.97
Carlos Delfino	23	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.09	-1	-7	6	16.0	14.1	1.95	13.8	15.8	-2.00
Ronald Murray	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-9	10	13.7	15.2	-1.47	15.0	15.5	-0.47
Nazr Mohammed	58	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-6	4	15.0	13.9	1.06	14.9	15.9	-1.06
Rasheed Wallace	45	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.06	-9	1	-10	15.4	13.8	1.53	15.1	15.5	-0.38
Antonio McDyess	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-10	12	13.9	15.5	-1.56	16.0	14.3	1.70
Chauncey Billups	72	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	13.9	16.4	-2.43	15.8	13.9	1.95
Jason Maxiell	22	22	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	1	-10	16.9	13.9	3.04	15.6	15.2	0.39
Richard Hamilton	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	-1	-6	14.2	16.1	-1.91	15.7	13.8	1.87
Tayshaun Prince	76	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	2	-12	14.6	14.2	0.41	15.1	15.9	-0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.09,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, NJN 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
MIA 90, SAS 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
DET 97, PHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%