NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	5.1 [777]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +12.9%
San Antonio Spurs	79		Comeback	1.1 [600]		LVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): -14.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.05	-0.04	13	57%	0.13	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	71%	0.07	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Gary Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	18	63%	0.08	3	-0.09	15	67%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sasha Danilovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	16	34%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	8	69%	0.08	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	14	56%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Greg Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	4	40%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	10	39%	-0.09	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	32.1	15.7	22.6	1.5	28.5	128.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +13.9%

MIA +7.2%

MIA +15.8%

MIA +11.7%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.6	16.9	15.6	107.1	95.2	104.4
season	15.8	16.8		103.1	100.8
opponent	15.4	16.3		109.4	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	18.8	18.6	17.9	17.6
SAS	16.6	17.2	15.7	18.1	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	68	67	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-2	15	17.7	17.3	0.38	17.4	14.7	2.70
Sasha Danilovic	82	81	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	2	7	17.8	10.0	7.80	16.9	16.5	0.38
Tim Hardaway	71	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-1	13	17.2	19.8	-2.54	16.7	17.5	-0.80
Alonzo Mourning	61	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.04	12	-1	13	18.2	16.0	2.23	17.3	15.6	1.74
Voshon Lenard	42	42	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	9	-7	18.1	17.1	0.95	16.2	17.6	-1.37
Keith Askins	49	47	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	2	7	16.1	19.8	-3.69	16.7	17.1	-0.33
Ike Austin	18	19	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	8	-5	15.7	18.2	-2.48	15.2	17.4	-2.22
Gary Grant	13	13	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	12	-13	19.8	17.2	2.54	17.5	16.7	0.80
P.J. Brown	16	15	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	15	-19	19.7	17.1	2.56	17.1	16.8	0.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monty Williams	24	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-16	21	15.9	17.3	-1.40	17.3	17.7	-0.40
Cory Alexander	15	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-14	17	16.5	16.9	-0.41	18.4	17.4	0.92
Greg Anderson	5	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-8	5	15.2	17.0	-1.77	19.2	17.5	1.68
David Robinson	45	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-10	9	16.7	17.1	-0.39	17.9	17.2	0.72
Vinny Del Negro	57	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.07	-6	-5	-1	17.7	15.1	2.61	18.0	16.8	1.12
Vernon Maxwell	26	26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-6	1	15.1	17.7	-2.61	16.8	18.0	-1.12
Sean Elliott	65	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-2	-7	17.1	15.9	1.25	17.6	17.9	-0.33
Avery Johnson	68	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	3	-17	16.9	16.5	0.41	17.4	18.4	-0.92
Will Perdue	50	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	0	-11	17.5	15.9	1.54	17.7	17.5	0.11
Dominique Wilkins	60	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	3	-17	16.7	17.2	-0.48	17.4	18.1	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, DET 97	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.09,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
WAS 102, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.21,0.11,0.21,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.06,0,0,0,0	94.7%
IND 112, DET 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.5%