NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	7.5 [336]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +35.1%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	5.1 [338]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -20.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Davis	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.15	0.00	1	100%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.15	0.16	0.02	0.03	11	74%	0.17	1	-0.02	12	100%	0.10
Tayshaun Prince	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	10	58%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Maurice Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04,-0.11	0.07	-0.17	0.01	10	72%	-0.02	3	-0.09	5	40%	-0.26
Rasheed Wallace	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	0.00	13	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	11	33%	-0.16	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.21	0.14	0.00	13	84%	0.37	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,0.24	0.24	-0.03	0.26	-0.00	8	50%	0.29	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	5	83%	0.15	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.06	-0.02	10	40%	0.05	2	-0.04	10	60%	-0.04
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.10	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	10	46%	-0.04	1	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	8	12%	-0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	24.7	16.0	28.0	2.8	37.1	133.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +70.7%

DET -5.8%

ORL +7.9%

DET -29.8%

ORL +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.4	15.6	98.9	101.1	104.4
season	16.9	16.4		108.3	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.5	17.1	15.2	15.5	16.3
ORL	16.0	16.3	16.9	16.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	6	6	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.16	2	-4	6	18.2	16.1	2.02	20.7	16.1	4.53
Carlos Delfino	25	25	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-1	0	16.1	16.3	-0.23	15.9	16.7	-0.73
Dale Davis	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.29	7	-9	16	14.9	16.6	-1.71	16.9	16.3	0.59
Chauncey Billups	69	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.46	12	-14	26	15.9	17.8	-1.92	16.7	15.6	1.10
Ben Wallace	57	56	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.11	-2	0	-2	16.4	16.1	0.24	16.6	16.1	0.55
Rasheed Wallace	48	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	4	-10	17.3	15.1	2.22	16.3	16.6	-0.38
Tayshaun Prince	65	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-8	14	15.9	17.4	-1.56	16.6	16.1	0.47
Maurice Evans	23	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	6	-14	17.4	15.9	1.56	15.4	16.8	-1.42
Lindsey Hunter	19	19	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	12	-26	17.8	15.9	1.92	15.6	16.7	-1.10
Tony Delk	63	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.49	-1	-1	0	16.3	16.1	0.23	16.7	15.9	0.73
Antonio McDyess	50	50	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.57	-5	3	-8	15.4	17.4	-2.00	16.1	16.9	-0.89

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	68	69	0.98	-0.48	1.45	0.71	9	-7	16	16.8	15.2	1.54	16.7	14.9	1.70
Jameer Nelson	39	39	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.63	7	-5	12	16.3	16.6	-0.29	17.3	15.4	1.88
Hedo Turkoglu	70	71	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.54	7	-5	12	16.9	14.8	2.02	16.7	14.6	2.03
Keyon Dooling	50	50	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-8	18	16.3	16.6	-0.29	16.1	16.6	-0.47
Tony Battie	65	64	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	2	-2	16.3	16.9	-0.58	16.8	15.0	1.82
DeShawn Stevenson	38	38	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.02	-8	10	-18	16.6	16.3	0.29	16.6	16.1	0.47
Trevor Ariza	18	17	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.10	-5	7	-12	14.8	16.9	-2.02	14.6	16.7	-2.03
Carlos Arroyo	49	49	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.19	-5	7	-12	16.6	16.3	0.29	15.4	17.3	-1.88
Darko Milicic	43	43	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.21	-5	7	-12	16.1	16.8	-0.64	15.0	17.6	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.72,0.54,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.57,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 103, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.63,0.62,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.39,0.29,0.57,0.58,1	88.9%
DEN 104, BKN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	88.7%
TOR 87, SEA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.15,0.26,1	88.7%