NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	9.6 [100]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +66.0%
Dallas Mavericks	104		Comeback	4.1 [414]		LVP	Robert Horry (SAS): -23.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.36	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.19	0.17	0.01	23	65%	0.44	1	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.24	0.06	0.18	-0.00	16	56%	0.56	2	-0.32	11	91%	0.02
Brent Barry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	4	73%	0.17	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	16	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.07	-0.01	5	70%	0.16	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23	-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	5	14%	-0.23	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.66	0.66	0.11	0.56	0.01	9	64%	0.73	3	-0.07	24	87%	0.28
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	2	83%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	0.00	3	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0.07,0.16,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	14	62%	0.16	4	-0.11	11	91%	0.12
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	60%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	15	59%	0.16	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	0.05	11	42%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.09
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	10	46%	0.01	3	-0.13	6	67%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	3.4	38.2	18.5	30.4	3.5	50.3	174.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -61.9%

DAL +68.6%

DAL +0.4%

DAL +36.1%

DAL +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.4	15.6	113.2	114.3	104.4
season	16.3	16.4		106.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.9	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.8	15.8	17.7	15.0	16.3
DAL	13.2	15.5	16.6	16.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	51	49	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.38	15	-16	31	16.4	16.2	0.17	16.4	14.2	2.20
Nick Van Exel	22	22	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-6	11	15.5	16.5	-0.99	17.3	14.7	2.59
Tim Duncan	76	76	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-5	9	16.7	14.0	2.75	15.6	13.9	1.78
Tony Parker	73	73	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-3	5	16.4	15.8	0.65	15.2	16.1	-0.88
Nazr Mohammed	2	3	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.06	-6	5	-11	15.5	16.3	-0.81	13.3	15.4	-2.09
Fabricio Oberto	18	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	7	-15	20.6	15.2	5.38	15.1	15.4	-0.30
Brent Barry	56	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	1	-3	15.4	17.7	-2.35	14.0	17.4	-3.46
Manu Ginobili	60	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.62	5	-6	11	15.3	18.2	-2.83	16.1	13.9	2.17
Bruce Bowen	74	74	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.37	-10	9	-19	16.3	16.1	0.22	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Robert Horry	23	24	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.39	-10	9	-19	16.2	16.3	-0.11	13.4	16.1	-2.68

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	71	71	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-13	27	14.6	18.0	-3.46	16.6	15.3	1.28
Josh Howard	66	68	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.50	7	-6	13	14.9	16.4	-1.50	16.3	16.3	-0.07
Jason Terry	79	79	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.50	0	1	-1	15.3	16.0	-0.75	15.9	18.9	-3.02
DeSagana Diop	34	35	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	-7	15	14.0	16.2	-2.16	18.3	15.0	3.28
Dirk Nowitzki	84	83	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	-2	5	15.2	17.3	-2.10	16.1	18.7	-2.69
Jerry Stackhouse	52	51	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.51	-8	9	-17	16.6	13.7	2.81	15.3	17.5	-2.19
Erick Dampier	45	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	4	-7	16.3	14.4	1.85	16.7	16.0	0.70
Darrell Armstrong	1	1	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	3	-5	26.0	15.2	10.77	1.0	16.5	-15.47
Marquis Daniels	23	23	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.10	-14	15	-29	16.8	14.9	1.91	16.7	16.1	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.63,0.62,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.39,0.29,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.84,1	91.8%
BOS 86, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.84,1	91.5%
DEN 104, BKN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	91.0%