NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	113		Excitement	4.0 [1039]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +15.6%
Charlotte Bobcats	107		Comeback	1.3 [480]		LVP	Brevin Knight (CHA): -12.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.01	0.00	15	67%	0.16	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	9	73%	0.09	2	-0.01	8	75%	-0.00
Michael Sweetney	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	16	54%	0.05	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Jannero Pargo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.15	0.00	-0.09	15	25%	-0.06	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	13	38%	-0.04	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	17	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	11	36%	-0.06
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.14	0.00	0.08	21	56%	0.06	0	0.00	8	100%	0.01
Bernard Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.01	0.08	7	86%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	14	43%	-0.05	2	-0.03	7	71%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.01	0.03	11	47%	-0.04	4	-0.09	10	90%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	30.0	15.5	25.4	2.7	49.2	148.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +38.9%

CHA -3.3%

CHI +9.6%

CHI +4.4%

CHI +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CHA	NBA	CHI	CHA	NBA
this game	14.7	13.6	15.6	110.8	105.9	104.4
season	14.4	14.8		102.6	100.5
opponent	15.4	16.1		104.6	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	15.7	16.7	12.2	14.7
CHA	13.8	14.3	15.2	11.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	59	59	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.04	17	-11	28	13.9	15.8	-1.88	14.1	13.1	0.98
Kirk Hinrich	89	88	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	4	-2	14.6	15.7	-1.11	13.7	13.3	0.39
Luol Deng	88	85	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	4	-2	14.7	15.1	-0.40	13.6	14.0	-0.42
Andres Nocioni	75	78	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.36	-2	8	-10	15.5	12.7	2.75	14.1	12.1	1.96
Malik Allen	31	30	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.11	14	-8	22	13.9	15.1	-1.13	13.2	13.8	-0.58
Tyson Chandler	35	36	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	2	2	16.1	14.0	2.07	15.3	12.7	2.63
Jannero Pargo	24	24	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	0	6	13.1	15.2	-2.15	12.0	14.2	-2.21
Michael Sweetney	37	34	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	5	-4	15.7	14.2	1.49	13.9	13.5	0.36
Chris Duhon	72	71	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.51	-14	20	-34	14.6	15.0	-0.44	12.6	16.1	-3.49

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonny Baxter	4	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-4	2	17.5	13.5	4.02	19.0	14.6	4.40
Primoz Brezec	46	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.30	8	-14	22	13.6	13.7	-0.10	15.5	14.1	1.45
Melvin Ely	8	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	0	-6	16.9	13.4	3.51	15.1	14.7	0.42
Jake Voskuhl	15	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	0	-6	15.3	13.3	1.98	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Matt Carroll	21	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	0	-6	14.2	13.5	0.75	15.3	14.6	0.71
Brevin Knight	85	87	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-10	14	13.1	16.3	-3.17	14.7	14.9	-0.17
Bernard Robinson	57	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-2	-2	13.1	14.3	-1.20	14.3	15.3	-0.99
Gerald Wallace	94	94	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	13.6	13.7	-0.08	14.9	12.7	2.14
Jumaine Jones	85	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	3	-12	13.6	13.9	-0.35	14.3	16.7	-2.38
Raymond Felton	90	90	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	2	-10	13.7	13.5	0.11	14.6	15.8	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 86, MIA 70	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
HOU 105, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.02,0,0	95.6%
CHH 112, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%