NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	7.2 [407]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +38.1%
Toronto Raptors	94		Comeback	16.3 [46]		LVP	Mike James (TOR): -19.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.38	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.23,0.05,0.05,0.38	0.10	0.29	0.01	23	61%	0.60	5	-0.22	15	87%	0.16
Shandon Anderson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.03	-0.06	0.08	-0.01	5	33%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Wayne Simien	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.01	9	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	18	47%	-0.10	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.14	0.01	4	73%	0.23	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.10
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	0.14	-0.16	0.03	20	67%	0.11	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	15	36%	-0.03	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.16	0.01	22	43%	-0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	31.6	16.0	24.7	2.0	35.1	136.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +2.0%

MIA +22.6%

MIA +32.8%

TOR -7.4%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	15.6	101.0	100.0	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		106.1	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.1	13.6	16.6	13.4	15.3
TOR	13.8	13.6	16.9	15.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	49	48	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.41	15	-11	26	13.7	16.9	-3.18	14.5	15.3	-0.78
Shandon Anderson	32	33	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.41	14	-10	24	13.9	16.0	-2.08	15.4	14.6	0.79
Dwyane Wade	79	76	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-3	10	15.5	14.4	1.01	15.0	14.3	0.68
Antoine Walker	72	71	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	1	2	15.8	13.6	2.25	15.1	14.1	1.00
Udonis Haslem	69	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-1	6	15.6	14.4	1.28	14.9	15.0	-0.11
Wayne Simien	46	44	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.19	7	-3	10	14.1	16.3	-2.21	15.6	14.2	1.37
Derek Anderson	23	24	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	8	-12	14.7	15.5	-0.81	15.5	14.7	0.83
Michael Doleac	29	27	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	9	-14	15.0	15.4	-0.43	12.5	15.9	-3.37
James Posey	37	33	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	13	-22	16.7	14.4	2.36	14.2	15.3	-1.13
Jason Williams	49	46	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.01	-13	17	-30	16.5	14.0	2.55	15.3	14.5	0.78

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafael Araujo	28	28	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.12	-2	-2	0	14.9	14.9	-0.04	15.1	15.3	-0.23
Andre Barrett	15	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-4	4	14.4	15.0	-0.57	15.4	15.2	0.20
Joey Graham	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.13	-6	2	-8	14.4	15.0	-0.61	15.9	15.1	0.75
Matt Bonner	61	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-7	10	14.0	16.5	-2.52	14.1	17.3	-3.24
Pape Sow	34	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	3	-10	16.3	14.1	2.26	17.0	14.2	2.76
Morris Peterson	83	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-2	0	14.8	15.5	-0.75	15.1	16.5	-1.38
Charlie Villanueva	89	91	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.44	-1	-3	2	15.0	13.6	1.36	15.4	13.8	1.53
Mike James	90	94	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	2	-8	15.0	11.2	3.79	15.4	11.0	4.40
Eric Williams	50	53	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.59	1	-5	6	15.1	14.7	0.38	15.2	15.4	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.73,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.54,0.65,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 82, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.27,0	93.2%
DAL 91, CHH 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.46,0.55,0.42,0	93.0%
DAL 99, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.42,0	92.4%