NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	5.7 [678]		MVP	Josh Childress (ATL): +14.8%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	1.5 [968]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -19.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.02	-0.00	8	90%	0.22	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	6	73%	0.15	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Donta Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.06	8	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	21	44%	0.00	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.15	-0.04	-0.08	22	38%	-0.02	5	-0.09	6	50%	-0.00
Josh Smith	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.18	-0.05	-0.04	10	23%	-0.08	4	-0.12	6	67%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	8	81%	0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.01	9	65%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.05	12	74%	0.10	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	9	65%	0.12	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	13	52%	0.11	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	6	50%	0.06	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	0.1	34.3	16.4	29.4	2.6	38.2	147.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +60.4%

ATL -7.7%

ATL -15.9%

ORL +7.4%

ORL +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	16.7	15.6	117.4	125.6	104.4
season	15.6	16.4		103.9	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.9	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.1	16.4	19.4	15.7	16.8
ORL	15.2	18.8	16.6	16.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donta Smith	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-12	17	11.5	17.0	-5.45	11.5	16.8	-5.29
Esteban Batista	11	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-8	9	16.3	16.9	-0.63	17.1	16.6	0.49
Marvin Williams	46	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-12	17	15.5	18.3	-2.85	17.5	15.6	1.87
Al Harrington	68	69	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-7	7	17.1	15.9	1.11	17.0	15.4	1.56
Royal Ivey	32	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	0	-7	18.4	15.9	2.52	14.9	17.7	-2.75
Josh Childress	66	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-2	-3	15.8	20.0	-4.20	17.4	14.1	3.35
Zaza Pachulia	73	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.18	-7	0	-7	17.0	15.6	1.43	17.1	14.3	2.77
Joe Johnson	77	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	3	-13	16.9	16.4	0.43	16.5	18.3	-1.87
Josh Smith	55	51	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.07	-17	10	-27	17.9	15.0	2.85	15.4	18.5	-3.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	64	64	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-10	27	16.2	17.9	-1.67	16.7	17.3	-0.60
Dwight Howard	72	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-2	11	16.4	18.1	-1.68	16.5	18.5	-1.93
Bo Outlaw	23	23	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	-5	17	16.7	16.7	-0.01	15.6	17.3	-1.72
Jameer Nelson	59	59	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	1	5	15.4	19.3	-3.89	16.3	18.1	-1.82
DeShawn Stevenson	51	51	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	6	-5	15.6	18.1	-2.50	16.7	17.0	-0.25
Keyon Dooling	35	35	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	1	5	18.1	15.6	2.50	17.0	16.7	0.25
Carlos Arroyo	32	31	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	10	-13	17.5	16.2	1.33	17.3	16.6	0.68
Darko Milicic	45	44	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	9	-11	17.6	15.6	2.01	17.9	15.7	2.17
Tony Battie	27	28	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	8	-9	17.5	16.3	1.19	17.7	16.4	1.26
Trevor Ariza	22	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	17	-27	17.9	16.2	1.67	17.3	16.7	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.95,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.76,0.87,0.94,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 91, OKC 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.84,0.97,0.96,1	93.9%
LAL 110, BKN 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.91,1	93.8%
MIL 92, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.99,1	93.7%