NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	11.3 [36]		MVP	Zaza Pachulia (ATL): +47.0%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	16.0 [99]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -20.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	6	84%	0.26	1	-0.14	7	100%	0.04
Trevor Ariza	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	7	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.09	0.01	9	50%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,0.03	-0.03	0.07	0.01	11	46%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.08
DeShawn Stevenson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.03	10	64%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Bo Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.04,-0.2	0.03	-0.23	-0.01	16	56%	-0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	0.01	-0.21	-0.00	10	46%	-0.20	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,0.47	0.47	-0.14	0.58	-0.03	15	36%	0.60	4	-0.13	6	50%	-0.06
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.43	0.43	0.33	0.13	0.02	24	80%	0.43	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	8	65%	0.14	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	40%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
John Edwards	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	9	33%	-0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	0.03	-0.24	-0.01	24	50%	-0.13	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.7	2.3	27.5	16.0	28.0	2.7	31.3	1.8	18.1	152.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +86.7%

ORL -17.4%

ORL -19.9%

ATL +5.7%

ORL -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	17.4	17.2	15.6	115.1	118.7	104.4
season	16.4	15.6		104.4	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	16.4	18.3	17.2	17.4	17.7	17.4
ATL	18.8	15.3	17.0	18.7	15.7	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	10	10	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.04	6	-7	13	15.2	17.6	-2.41	21.5	16.7	4.82
Carlos Arroyo	37	36	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.05	2	-3	5	17.6	17.2	0.35	16.3	17.8	-1.45
Darko Milicic	30	31	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.07	3	-4	7	16.6	17.7	-1.16	17.5	17.0	0.47
Hedo Turkoglu	58	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.32	9	-10	19	16.5	18.7	-2.18	17.6	16.5	1.14
DeShawn Stevenson	49	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	5	-11	17.5	17.2	0.29	16.7	17.8	-1.15
Keyon Dooling	44	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.45	5	-6	11	17.2	17.5	-0.29	17.8	16.7	1.15
Trevor Ariza	35	32	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	9	-19	18.7	16.5	2.18	16.5	17.6	-1.14
Tony Battie	73	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	3	-7	17.5	16.8	0.64	17.1	17.5	-0.44
Dwight Howard	73	72	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.39	-7	6	-13	17.8	15.6	2.24	16.6	19.6	-3.00
Jameer Nelson	56	55	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.52	-3	2	-5	17.2	17.6	-0.35	17.8	16.3	1.45

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	80	83	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-6	13	17.2	17.0	0.24	17.6	15.2	2.41
Zaza Pachulia	82	84	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-4	9	17.3	16.1	1.22	17.4	17.0	0.39
Al Harrington	76	77	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	0	1	16.9	18.9	-2.06	17.5	16.7	0.81
Josh Smith	66	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.41	4	-3	7	16.7	18.6	-1.86	17.6	16.7	0.87
Salim Stoudamire	21	20	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	0	1	17.8	17.0	0.72	17.2	17.4	-0.20
Josh Childress	57	59	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	3	-5	18.1	15.6	2.49	17.2	17.7	-0.51
Marvin Williams	32	31	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	3	-5	18.0	16.8	1.27	16.3	17.9	-1.60
John Edwards	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	5	-9	16.3	17.3	-1.00	16.1	17.5	-1.31
Royal Ivey	25	26	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	7	-13	16.3	17.6	-1.28	17.4	17.3	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.72,0.55,0.85,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.33,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.55,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.72,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.15,1	89.0%
IND 102, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.69,0.54,0.86,0.72,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.23,0.16,1	88.6%
HOU 95, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.54,0.84,0.96,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.33,0.73,1	88.2%