NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	96		Excitement	7.0 [441]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +26.7%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	293.1 [8]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIL): -9.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	13	70%	0.12	2	0.01	4	100%	0.02
T.J. Ford	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	12	58%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	20	41%	0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	8	44%	0.00	3	-0.08	11	36%	-0.09
Joe Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	13	40%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.13,0.27	0.27	-0.03	0.28	-0.02	22	51%	0.36	5	-0.10	9	100%	0.20
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.08	-0.00	16	44%	0.13	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	13	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.05	11	50%	-0.04	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.0	30.2	15.8	24.5	1.8	38.2	136.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -18.9%

TOR +61.0%

MIL -0.1%

MIL -14.4%

TOR +22.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	17.3	13.7	15.6	103.2	104.3	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		104.6	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	18.6	15.7	19.3	17.3
TOR	13.8	13.3	16.4	11.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	23	23	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.05	8	-9	17	20.2	16.3	3.86	14.4	13.5	0.98
Mo Williams	21	21	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-5	9	20.4	16.3	4.08	14.1	13.6	0.51
Jamaal Magloire	66	66	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.28	-7	6	-13	16.5	19.1	-2.65	13.7	13.6	0.15
Andrew Bogut	53	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-3	5	14.8	20.5	-5.76	14.5	12.7	1.88
Joe Smith	40	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	2	-5	20.5	14.8	5.76	12.7	14.5	-1.88
Bobby Simmons	79	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.50	0	-1	1	16.8	20.1	-3.38	13.4	15.1	-1.70
T.J. Ford	77	77	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.48	-5	4	-9	16.7	19.9	-3.22	13.7	13.6	0.16
Charlie Bell	31	31	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.66	1	-2	3	19.5	16.1	3.37	13.1	14.0	-0.85
Michael Redd	75	75	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.50	-5	4	-9	16.3	21.1	-4.76	13.8	13.3	0.52

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	50	51	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.38	12	-11	23	12.9	14.6	-1.68	16.1	18.7	-2.68
Matt Bonner	47	48	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.45	9	-8	17	12.8	14.7	-1.89	19.4	15.0	4.44
Mike James	79	79	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.49	5	-4	9	13.8	13.1	0.65	17.0	18.9	-1.95
Morris Peterson	86	87	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	-2	5	13.5	16.0	-2.49	16.9	22.8	-5.95
Chris Bosh	90	89	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	0	1	13.7	13.0	0.72	16.8	28.7	-12.00
Rafael Araujo	11	11	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	1	-1	12.5	13.9	-1.41	16.4	17.4	-1.03
Andre Barrett	29	29	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	12	-23	14.5	13.3	1.14	19.4	16.3	3.07
Joey Graham	37	36	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	7	-13	14.4	13.2	1.22	20.6	15.2	5.41
Pape Sow	36	35	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.04	-8	9	-17	15.2	12.8	2.39	14.1	19.2	-5.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.18,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 115, SAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.07,0,1	92.3%
PHX 74, DET 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.22,0.42,1	92.2%
HOU 75, SAS 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.42,1	91.9%