NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	99		Excitement	7.7 [310]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (IND): +26.4%
Washington Wizards	93		Comeback	5.9 [135]		LVP	Caron Butler (WAS): -27.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.26	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.26	0.08	0.19	0.00	19	63%	0.34	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
David Harrison	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	4	100%	0.21	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	78%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Danny Granger	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	14	41%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.08
Scot Pollard	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	16	46%	-0.02	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.04
Jeff Foster	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Gill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	17	51%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	24	46%	0.05	3	-0.12	13	85%	0.04
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	46%	-0.00	2	-0.07	5	0%	-0.10
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	14	21%	-0.17	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	28.5	15.3	30.3	0.2	37.1	137.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +22.8%

IND +33.0%

WAS -5.1%

WAS -1.7%

IND +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	WAS	NBA	IND	WAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.4	15.6	105.3	100.0	104.4
season	16.0	15.1		102.3	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.5	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.3	15.3	16.0	14.2	15.4
WAS	15.7	15.3	15.3	15.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sarunas Jasikevicius	77	76	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	0	6	15.8	13.8	2.05	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Stephen Jackson	71	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	0	6	15.5	15.3	0.13	15.6	14.4	1.26
Peja Stojakovic	76	73	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.19	11	-5	16	15.6	14.8	0.83	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Fred Jones	62	62	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.31	5	1	4	14.8	16.6	-1.79	15.3	15.5	-0.24
David Harrison	42	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	5	-4	15.3	15.6	-0.25	15.5	15.2	0.23
Scot Pollard	38	38	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	0	6	16.7	14.6	2.17	16.0	14.9	1.14
Jeff Foster	49	47	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	6	-6	15.4	15.5	-0.17	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Danny Granger	40	37	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	9	-12	14.3	16.3	-1.91	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Eddie Gill	15	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	8	-10	15.4	15.5	-0.06	16.6	15.1	1.53

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donell Taylor	13	13	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.03	5	-11	16	15.1	15.4	-0.32	13.9	15.7	-1.77
Jared Jeffries	56	60	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.06	8	-14	22	14.9	16.0	-1.12	15.4	15.5	-0.08
Etan Thomas	44	44	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-9	12	15.6	15.1	0.53	15.7	15.2	0.44
Michael Ruffin	17	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	0	-6	15.8	15.3	0.50	15.2	15.5	-0.26
Antonio Daniels	58	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-3	0	14.7	16.5	-1.77	14.9	16.4	-1.56
Brendan Haywood	41	40	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	2	-10	16.0	14.8	1.24	15.6	15.3	0.35
Gilbert Arenas	83	85	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	4	-14	15.2	16.5	-1.28	15.6	14.0	1.60
Caron Butler	74	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.32	-10	4	-14	15.6	14.3	1.31	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Antawn Jamison	79	79	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.39	-9	3	-12	15.5	14.6	0.92	15.8	13.5	2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.85,0.76,0.8,0.7,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 95, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.41,0.27,0.2,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	92.2%
OKC 111, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.31,0.46,0.32,0.04,0	91.8%
UTA 94, SAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.53,0.39,0.28,0.17,0.05,0	91.6%