NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	113		Excitement	9.7 [99]		MVP	Charlie Villanueva (TOR): +34.5%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	2.2 [407]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -23.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.11	0.21	0.00	9	75%	0.34	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.05	0.01	8	89%	0.20	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	14	39%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	69%	0.10	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	10	41%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.12	-0.01	24	49%	0.06	3	-0.18	5	60%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.17	0.01	21	53%	0.11	7	-0.35	7	71%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.15	0.20	0.00	17	64%	0.34	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Morris Peterson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.00	19	50%	0.19	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.17
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pape Sow	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.12	-0.18	0.03	17	57%	-0.09	0	0.00	13	85%	0.02
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	5	29%	-0.08	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2	-0.20	0.01	-0.18	0.03	17	57%	-0.08	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	0.7	30.6	16.4	23.3	1.7	35.1	2.3	16.3	151.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +78.6%

TOR -26.6%

ATL +36.3%

TOR -41.1%

ATL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	17.4	16.6	15.6	118.9	120.7	104.4
season	15.6	15.6		103.9	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.5	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	14.4	16.9	16.8	21.6	18.4	17.4
TOR	16.9	16.6	16.7	16.3	16.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	77	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-3	8	17.6	16.2	1.41	16.9	15.3	1.64
Salim Stoudamire	51	49	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.52	0	2	-2	17.8	16.8	1.02	16.0	17.4	-1.39
Joe Johnson	95	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	17.4	0.0	17.37	16.6	0.0	16.63
Marvin Williams	46	43	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	4	-6	16.5	18.1	-1.60	16.4	16.8	-0.40
Josh Childress	76	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.56	-5	7	-12	17.6	16.3	1.32	16.9	15.5	1.46
Al Harrington	66	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	-10	22	17.3	17.4	-0.11	16.8	16.2	0.58
Royal Ivey	19	19	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.12	7	-5	12	16.3	17.6	-1.32	15.5	16.9	-1.46
Zaza Pachulia	35	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	2	-2	17.5	17.3	0.23	17.0	16.4	0.56
Esteban Batista	10	8	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.11	-9	11	-20	16.4	17.5	-1.08	16.0	16.7	-0.69

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	18	18	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.04	9	-11	20	16.1	16.8	-0.71	18.0	17.2	0.78
Darrick Martin	1	2	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-5	8	13.0	16.7	-3.67	15.0	17.4	-2.42
Pape Sow	5	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-2	2	16.0	16.7	-0.67	13.3	17.6	-4.31
Chris Bosh	89	91	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.38	5	-7	12	16.6	16.7	-0.04	17.6	11.0	6.65
Jose Calderon	29	30	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	5	-12	17.7	16.1	1.55	14.9	18.5	-3.61
Charlie Villanueva	68	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-2	2	16.4	17.4	-1.06	17.6	16.8	0.77
Joey Graham	59	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.38	3	-5	8	16.6	16.7	-0.06	18.1	16.1	1.99
Mike James	66	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-3	4	16.4	17.2	-0.84	18.3	15.1	3.21
Morris Peterson	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.37	-4	2	-6	16.3	19.9	-3.61	17.5	16.3	1.24
Matt Bonner	42	45	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.25	-20	18	-38	17.9	15.6	2.26	15.9	18.7	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.46,0.61,0.46,0.33,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.32,0.22,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.43,0.42,0	89.4%
PHI 98, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.04,0.46,0.75,0.55,0.43,0.26,0	88.9%
DEN 124, ORL 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.21,0.33,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.06,0.08,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.22,0.02,0	88.7%