NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	124		Excitement	9.9 [97]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +38.8%
Orlando Magic	118		Comeback	2.2 [698]		LVP	Jonathon Simmons (ORL): -14.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juancho Hernangomez	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.13	0.16	0.01	8	87%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	6	67%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	10	67%	0.16	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.04
Monte Morris	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	7	87%	0.18	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Trey Lyles	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	8	60%	0.12	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	83%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.03,0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	25	51%	0.04	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.05
Mason Plumlee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	69%	0.04	1	-0.04	10	50%	-0.12
Nikola Jokic	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	13	43%	-0.02	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.08,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.01	12	65%	0.39	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.11	0.00	15	76%	0.32	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.07
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	4	100%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	6	92%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.11	-0.08	0.03	19	63%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	3	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.03	-0.14	0.01	19	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.1	1.6	26.5	14.6	23.1	1.5	33.4	1.6	19.3	145.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	3.3	15.6	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +37.5%

ORL -8.2%

DEN +14.1%

ORL -6.9%

DEN +13.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	14.3	120.4	114.6	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		112.0	107.2
opponent	14.3	14.6		107.2	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.7	15.4	15.7	14.6	14.4	15.2
ORL	16.3	15.2	15.0	16.7	14.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	68	69	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.51	10	-4	14	15.1	15.6	-0.50	15.2	16.4	-1.21
Malik Beasley	59	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-4	14	15.3	15.2	0.15	15.9	15.3	0.65
Jamal Murray	92	91	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.49	2	4	-2	15.1	16.2	-1.05	15.2	18.7	-3.44
Paul Millsap	66	66	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.30	1	5	-4	15.1	15.6	-0.51	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Monte Morris	37	37	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	1	4	15.6	15.1	0.51	16.5	15.1	1.42
Trey Lyles	34	35	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	1	4	15.7	15.0	0.74	16.6	15.1	1.51
Juancho Hernangomez	61	63	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	11	-16	15.4	15.0	0.37	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Torrey Craig	50	50	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.23	0	6	-6	14.9	15.6	-0.70	15.8	15.4	0.41
Mason Plumlee	37	36	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.19	-4	10	-14	15.8	14.9	0.84	16.4	15.2	1.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Bamba	30	31	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-8	10	15.9	15.5	0.38	15.1	15.3	-0.16
Jonathon Simmons	49	49	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.06	-1	-5	4	15.4	15.8	-0.39	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Evan Fournier	74	77	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-10	14	15.9	14.9	0.97	15.3	15.2	0.07
Jerian Grant	41	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-5	4	16.4	15.1	1.30	15.3	15.2	0.16
D.J. Augustin	52	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-7	8	15.3	16.0	-0.69	15.4	15.1	0.22
Terrence Ross	61	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	1	-8	15.4	16.0	-0.58	15.0	15.6	-0.57
Aaron Gordon	77	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	0	-6	15.8	15.2	0.59	15.1	15.6	-0.42
Nikola Vucevic	73	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	2	-10	15.5	15.9	-0.38	15.3	15.1	0.16
Jonathan Isaac	48	45	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	2	-10	15.5	15.8	-0.28	16.0	14.7	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.21,0.33,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.06,0.08,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 101, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.23,0.26,0.46,0.32,0.45,0.23,0.02,0	90.2%
WAS 120, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.17,0.54,0.39,0.29,0.15,0.08,0	89.5%
ATL 100, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.43,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.31,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.6,0.47,0.28,0.32,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.23,0.02,0	89.0%