NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	6.6 [501]		MVP	Mike James (TOR): +23.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	94		Comeback	1.3 [454]		LVP	Ricky Davis (MIN): -11.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.18,0.13,0.23	0.08	0.16	0.01	20	61%	0.32	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14	0.15	-0.00	0.01	8	87%	0.18	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12	0.06	0.08	0.01	12	67%	0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.00	9	61%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Loren Woods	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Pape Sow	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	5	46%	-0.00	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	0.00	9	58%	0.14	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.06	0.01	15	62%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.03
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	68%	0.10	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Justin Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	17	39%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	27.5	15.7	23.3	2.4	32.7	133.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +34.4%

TOR +9.7%

TOR +0.4%

TOR +9.1%

MIN -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIN	NBA	TOR	MIN	NBA
this game	18.1	16.6	15.6	118.1	113.3	104.4
season	15.6	16.1		107.3	101.0
opponent	15.9	15.4		103.1	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.0	17.2	17.7	20.7	18.1
MIN	18.1	14.7	16.6	17.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	54	55	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-7	18	17.8	18.7	-0.93	16.3	17.2	-0.91
Morris Peterson	68	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	3	-2	18.3	17.0	1.32	17.1	14.6	2.46
Mike James	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	3	-2	18.4	17.0	1.36	16.6	16.5	0.11
Chris Bosh	58	58	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.40	-3	7	-10	18.8	16.4	2.35	16.6	16.7	-0.09
Jose Calderon	43	43	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	1	2	17.7	18.5	-0.80	16.0	17.2	-1.18
Antonio Davis	51	49	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	5	-6	18.5	17.4	1.10	17.1	15.9	1.14
Matt Bonner	25	24	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	0	4	15.8	19.1	-3.27	16.3	16.7	-0.45
Loren Woods	11	13	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	1	2	20.9	17.7	3.26	18.2	16.3	1.92
Pape Sow	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	16.7	18.4	-1.65	15.6	16.8	-1.24
Eric Williams	23	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	5	-6	17.4	18.3	-0.96	16.2	16.8	-0.57

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Reed	13	14	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-6	8	14.6	17.0	-2.37	18.1	18.1	0.07
Marcus Banks	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-5	6	16.4	16.8	-0.31	18.1	18.1	-0.06
Mark Madsen	28	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	1	-6	17.2	16.3	0.91	17.4	18.4	-1.04
Rashad McCants	32	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-3	2	16.3	16.8	-0.44	18.5	17.8	0.68
Ricky Davis	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-4	4	16.5	17.6	-1.12	18.3	16.4	1.84
Mark Blount	54	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.34	1	-5	6	16.6	16.7	-0.17	19.4	15.8	3.64
Anthony Carter	45	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	1	-6	16.8	16.4	0.31	17.7	18.5	-0.77
Kevin Garnett	72	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-2	0	17.0	14.3	2.70	18.1	18.3	-0.22
Trenton Hassell	60	59	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	7	-18	16.7	16.4	0.31	17.1	20.6	-3.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.09,0.19,0.28,0.17,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 109, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.23,0,0	94.0%
POR 86, TOR 80	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.16,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.33,0.08,0	93.7%
SAC 99, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.23,0.26,0	93.3%