NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	6.4 [544]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (SAS): +9.9%
New Jersey Nets	73		Comeback	1.8 [379]		LVP	Vince Carter (NJN): -25.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.02	6	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.01	14	43%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	69%	0.17	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.04	15	54%	0.01	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Robert Horry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	9	28%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	12	65%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	10	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	12	47%	-0.03	5	-0.18	8	87%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.24,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.09	-0.10	0.06	27	38%	-0.21	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	3.4	29.2	16.7	28.5	3.4	48.4	151.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.6%

SAS +0.3%

NJN -2.6%

SAS +10.1%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NJN	NBA	SAS	NJN	NBA
this game	18.7	16.4	15.6	101.2	89.0	104.4
season	16.3	15.7		106.0	102.1
opponent	15.7	15.6		100.9	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.8	19.2	16.5	21.6	18.7
NJN	16.5	15.1	17.8	16.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	68	68	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.25	17	-7	24	18.7	18.7	-0.02	16.1	18.0	-1.90
Bruce Bowen	62	62	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-4	18	18.6	19.0	-0.47	16.7	15.4	1.29
Manu Ginobili	57	58	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.02	19	-9	28	18.0	20.3	-2.28	16.0	17.4	-1.40
Tim Duncan	56	58	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	-2	14	18.6	18.9	-0.33	17.1	14.7	2.43
Nick Van Exel	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	8	-6	20.0	18.0	1.93	17.2	16.0	1.25
Rasho Nesterovic	45	43	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	8	-6	17.3	20.4	-3.02	17.6	15.1	2.53
Robert Horry	28	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	10	-10	19.8	18.1	1.66	15.2	17.0	-1.81
Nazr Mohammed	19	20	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.12	-2	12	-14	20.5	18.1	2.38	12.2	17.8	-5.52
Sean Marks	6	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	12	-14	16.2	18.9	-2.73	17.4	16.3	1.10
Michael Finley	41	40	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.20	-12	22	-34	19.4	18.0	1.39	16.9	16.0	0.92

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Jackson	12	10	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-15	20	14.5	16.8	-2.26	21.8	18.3	3.54
Scott Padgett	20	19	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.01	2	-12	14	15.8	16.6	-0.83	20.3	18.2	2.11
Antoine Wright	3	3	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-5	0	18.7	16.3	2.32	10.3	19.0	-8.68
Jacque Vaughn	28	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	-7	4	16.4	16.5	-0.11	21.8	16.9	4.84
Nenad Krstic	54	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.07	-15	5	-20	16.3	16.7	-0.44	17.2	22.0	-4.84
Clifford Robinson	65	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-7	4	17.2	13.4	3.80	18.6	18.9	-0.24
Jason Kidd	77	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	16.4	16.8	-0.40	18.2	24.8	-6.62
Richard Jefferson	78	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	3	-16	16.4	16.2	0.19	18.7	18.6	0.10
Vince Carter	73	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	1	-12	16.3	17.7	-1.39	18.6	19.1	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.2,0.11,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0	93.1%
NOH 96, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	92.7%
PHX 129, NYK 121	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.2,0.07,0.02,0.01,0	92.6%