NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	12.9 [12]		MVP	Dan Gadzuric (MIL): +29.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	15.2 [121]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (ORL): -35.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.2,0.08,0.22,0.13,0.05,0.15,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	20	56%	0.39	4	-0.24	8	75%	-0.02
Travis Diener	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	9	37%	-0.04	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.04	-0.16	-0.00	12	38%	-0.18	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	12	31%	-0.14	4	-0.13	11	64%	-0.04
Steve Francis	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.14	-0.19	-0.01	11	36%	-0.20	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.35	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.35	-0.08	-0.28	-0.00	16	41%	-0.16	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.15	-0.00	9	81%	0.30	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.19	0.19	-0.02	0.22	0.01	13	44%	0.27	1	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	59%	0.09	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	38%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,0,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.3,-0.3,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	30	42%	-0.05	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.05
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.09	0.00	12	44%	0.03	6	-0.24	1	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.00	3	10%	-0.09	3	-0.14	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	23.3	0.8	26.4	16.3	29.6	2.6	30.3	1.5	19.7	1.6	20.1	172.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +91.9%

ORL -5.5%

ORL -42.7%

MIL +1.8%

MIL +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	17.9	15.5	15.6	85.6	90.4	104.4
season	16.4	15.5		104.4	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	17.7	16.2	15.2	23.5	23.7	18.1
MIL	15.7	13.8	14.7	17.8	16.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	36	35	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.59	-6	1	-7	17.0	18.4	-1.41	14.4	16.1	-1.76
Steve Francis	71	70	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.14	7	-12	19	19.3	15.0	4.33	15.8	15.0	0.80
Hedo Turkoglu	90	89	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-11	17	18.0	17.3	0.74	15.4	16.5	-1.16
Tony Battie	62	60	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-6	7	18.2	17.5	0.75	15.3	15.9	-0.56
Mario Kasun	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	15.0	18.3	-3.27	12.8	15.9	-3.04
Stacey Augmon	11	10	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	4	-13	14.1	18.4	-4.29	14.3	15.7	-1.37
Travis Diener	17	17	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	1	-7	17.5	18.0	-0.54	15.8	15.5	0.34
Dwight Howard	72	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.47	6	-11	17	17.7	18.3	-0.56	15.8	14.9	0.91
DeShawn Stevenson	81	83	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.46	-8	3	-11	18.0	17.8	0.18	16.1	13.2	2.94
Pat Garrity	60	63	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.67	-7	2	-9	18.3	17.5	0.81	15.8	15.2	0.61

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	90	90	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-3	11	15.0	19.3	-4.33	18.0	17.5	0.49
Dan Gadzuric	46	45	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.44	5	0	5	16.6	14.7	1.88	17.4	18.3	-0.92
Michael Redd	85	85	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	5	-5	15.8	14.5	1.24	17.8	18.7	-0.93
T.J. Ford	84	84	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	5	-5	15.4	16.0	-0.57	18.6	15.2	3.37
Joe Smith	23	23	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-3	11	14.8	15.7	-0.91	15.8	18.5	-2.69
Jiri Welsch	16	17	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.09	9	-4	13	15.5	15.5	-0.05	15.4	18.4	-3.07
Charlie Bell	41	41	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	2	1	16.2	15.1	1.04	18.3	17.7	0.57
Andrew Bogut	51	53	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	10	-15	14.6	16.4	-1.79	16.5	19.4	-2.84
Jamaal Magloire	66	66	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.09	-8	13	-21	15.8	15.1	0.72	19.6	15.0	4.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.73,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.72,0.75,0.46,0.31,0.09,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.54,0.45,0.72,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 105, CLE 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.28,0.23,0.15,0.54,0.53,0.85,0.84,0.98,1	85.3%
CHI 114, DAL 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.55,0.47,0.22,0.1,0.17,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.86,0.96,1	85.1%
NOH 93, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.27,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.68,0.72,1	85.1%