NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	114		Excitement	10.6 [49]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +30.6%
Dallas Mavericks	115		Comeback	21.5 [78]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -24.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrus Thomas	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11	0.10	0.04	0.03	14	66%	0.17	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Joakim Noah	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	4	73%	0.07	2	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07
Andres Nocioni	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.02	9	65%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.06	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	15	28%	-0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.2,-0.15,-0.22,-0.21	0.08	-0.23	0.05	18	67%	0.08	5	-0.29	6	100%	0.03
Derrick Rose	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.07	-0.15	0.03	25	44%	-0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.31	0.31	0.12	0.17	-0.02	34	56%	0.37	2	-0.06	11	100%	0.11
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	-0.01	0.31	-0.01	4	62%	0.34	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	9	62%	0.23	4	-0.15	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.07	-0.00	17	53%	0.07	2	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.0	2.0	28.2	16.7	26.0	1.8	35.1	2.4	19.1	157.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +80.9%

DAL +10.1%

CHI -59.1%

DAL +18.7%

CHI -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.2	15.5	109.6	109.5	106.4
season	14.8	15.6		106.3	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		107.1	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	16.9	15.0	13.9	16.7	12.7	15.2
DAL	16.6	15.7	14.4	14.6	14.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	46	48	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-1	1	15.7	14.8	0.93	13.0	17.0	-3.99
Aaron Gray	14	14	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-4	7	11.4	15.8	-4.38	14.6	15.3	-0.74
Kirk Hinrich	58	57	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	2	-5	15.9	14.4	1.49	15.1	15.4	-0.34
Luol Deng	88	89	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.53	8	-9	17	14.7	17.9	-3.21	15.7	12.6	3.12
Thabo Sefolosha	20	21	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.05	-13	12	-25	17.4	14.7	2.76	12.7	15.8	-3.18
Derrick Rose	82	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.53	6	-7	13	15.4	14.6	0.80	15.8	13.0	2.85
Joakim Noah	57	56	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	1	-3	14.9	15.6	-0.72	17.0	13.1	3.87
Tyrus Thomas	87	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.57	1	-2	3	15.8	12.5	3.29	15.5	13.9	1.53
Ben Gordon	68	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	4	-9	14.5	16.7	-2.21	14.6	16.4	-1.74

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	75	74	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-10	21	14.2	17.7	-3.44	15.3	15.1	0.22
Dirk Nowitzki	89	86	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.55	0	1	-1	15.2	15.3	-0.12	14.9	16.7	-1.82
Brandon Bass	35	34	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-11	23	14.4	15.6	-1.26	16.8	14.5	2.34
Josh Howard	53	54	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.47	-2	3	-5	15.0	15.4	-0.38	15.5	14.9	0.62
Erick Dampier	56	57	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	2	-3	16.1	14.2	1.96	14.5	16.1	-1.62
Jason Kidd	75	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.56	-9	10	-19	15.9	13.5	2.39	15.9	13.4	2.51
Jason Terry	32	30	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	-2	5	15.7	15.0	0.73	15.6	15.1	0.53
Devean George	21	22	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	3	-5	13.5	15.6	-2.17	11.9	16.1	-4.20
Antoine Wright	51	49	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	2	-3	16.2	14.3	1.88	16.0	14.5	1.43
Matt Carroll	10	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	2	-3	12.6	15.5	-2.88	8.7	15.9	-7.21
James Singleton	28	29	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	-0.29	-5	6	-11	15.5	15.1	0.44	16.3	14.8	1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.55,0.47,0.22,0.1,0.17,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, BOS 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.47,0.39,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.69,0.93,0.99,1	91.1%
DEN 96, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.15,0.1,0.42,0.54,0.69,0.86,0.95,1,1	89.5%
CLE 93, CHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.58,0.59,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.37,0.22,0.28,0.54,0.68,0.89,1,1,1	89.3%