NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	9.0 [147]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +48.6%
Atlanta Hawks	96		Comeback	1.6 [914]		LVP	Tony Battie (ORL): -23.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.12	-0.00	11	71%	0.31	3	-0.10	12	50%	-0.09
Steve Francis	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,0.07,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	19	67%	0.30	3	-0.15	7	86%	0.09
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	13	47%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.07
DeShawn Stevenson	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Keyon Dooling	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23	-0.08	-0.16	-0.01	11	35%	-0.20	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.16

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.49	0.49	0.18	0.32	0.01	13	72%	0.49	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.16,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	0.01	15	47%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	69%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.04
Royal Ivey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	5	43%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	38%	0.01	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	20	39%	-0.01	1	-0.07	6	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.6	28.2	16.4	25.5	2.6	40.0	141.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +14.9%

ATL +17.2%

ATL +5.2%

ATL +23.7%

ORL -11.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	17.1	18.0	15.6	114.6	117.1	104.4
season	16.4	15.6		104.4	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	19.0	16.3	17.2	16.0	17.1
ATL	15.3	18.8	18.8	19.2	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	6	7	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-3	4	14.5	17.3	-2.82	21.4	17.7	3.74
Hedo Turkoglu	59	59	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-2	2	17.6	15.9	1.72	17.8	18.4	-0.59
Stacey Augmon	25	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-5	8	16.1	17.5	-1.42	19.0	17.6	1.46
Pat Garrity	21	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	1	-4	15.6	17.6	-2.00	17.4	18.2	-0.82
Travis Diener	5	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	5	-12	18.0	17.1	0.95	18.3	18.0	0.35
Steve Francis	69	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.46	9	-11	20	17.1	17.2	-0.05	17.7	19.8	-2.09
Dwight Howard	67	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.33	0	-2	2	17.3	16.2	1.11	17.3	21.4	-4.03
DeShawn Stevenson	59	59	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	2	-6	17.2	16.9	0.33	18.5	16.8	1.71
Keyon Dooling	32	31	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	2	-6	16.3	17.6	-1.36	17.5	18.3	-0.75
Tony Battie	67	65	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.49	-5	3	-8	17.8	14.0	3.81	18.4	16.4	2.09

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	44	46	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.56	5	-3	8	19.3	16.5	2.77	16.7	17.7	-0.99
Al Harrington	66	67	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-6	14	17.9	18.6	-0.68	17.7	14.5	3.23
Zaza Pachulia	57	58	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.32	2	0	2	17.8	18.4	-0.62	17.9	15.2	2.69
Salim Stoudamire	12	11	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	0	2	20.1	17.7	2.43	14.6	17.5	-2.86
Joe Johnson	69	71	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.40	-5	7	-12	17.6	20.2	-2.55	17.1	17.5	-0.40
Josh Smith	62	61	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	0	2	18.3	17.0	1.34	16.7	18.2	-1.52
Marvin Williams	34	31	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	4	-6	18.2	17.9	0.33	15.5	18.1	-2.51
Royal Ivey	28	29	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	-2	6	16.2	18.9	-2.68	18.4	16.4	1.96
Josh Childress	34	32	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	18.1	18.0	0.13	17.6	16.8	0.79
Esteban Batista	4	4	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	8	-14	14.5	18.2	-3.69	13.5	17.3	-3.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.49,0.48,0.63,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.94,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 107, TOR 118	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.54,0.72,0.54,0.72,0.85,0.92,1	92.2%
PHI 103, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.63,0.91,0.95,1	91.9%
ATL 83, MIN 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.78,0.94,0.83,1	91.7%