NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	7.8 [294]		MVP	Earl Watson (DEN): +41.1%
Chicago Bulls	94		Comeback	8.8 [77]		LVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): -16.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Watson	0.41	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.41	0.10	0.30	-0.02	10	80%	0.46	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.22	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.22	0.16	0.08	0.01	24	57%	0.24	1	-0.01	21	90%	0.08
Kenyon Martin	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.11	0.03	0.10	0.02	20	48%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Andre Miller	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	10	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.08
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Greg Buckner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	2	0%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	7	18%	-0.10	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	5	82%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	9	64%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	15	65%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.04	0.02	14	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	10%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	13	31%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	14	52%	0.07	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.15	-0.15	0.01	-0.16	-0.00	5	75%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.8	29.1	15.7	24.2	2.3	37.5	139.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +6.5%

DEN +17.6%

DEN +11.9%

DEN +14.8%

CHI -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	15.6	107.8	103.3	104.4
season	14.4	14.4		103.5	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.9		102.1	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	16.8	16.1	17.4	16.0
CHI	15.4	16.7	15.9	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	76	79	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.53	15	-12	27	14.9	22.1	-7.18	15.8	15.9	-0.12
Kenyon Martin	68	70	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-7	17	15.7	16.9	-1.19	15.8	15.7	0.13
Earl Watson	71	72	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.39	12	-9	21	15.8	16.8	-0.99	15.2	18.3	-3.10
Eduardo Najera	39	38	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.61	-8	11	-19	16.5	15.7	0.79	15.8	15.8	0.05
Andre Miller	72	73	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	0	3	16.4	14.3	2.17	15.8	15.7	0.11
Francisco Elson	55	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.22	7	-4	11	15.9	16.1	-0.17	16.6	14.7	1.90
Linas Kleiza	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	8	-13	14.0	16.3	-2.26	17.8	15.6	2.23
Greg Buckner	25	24	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.02	-8	11	-19	17.5	15.4	2.03	15.6	15.9	-0.26
Earl Boykins	34	34	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.00	-11	14	-25	17.7	15.0	2.72	15.4	16.1	-0.64

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	53	51	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.11	3	-6	9	15.6	16.1	-0.50	17.3	14.4	2.87
Jannero Pargo	8	7	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.07	8	-11	19	17.9	15.6	2.26	14.9	16.1	-1.25
Michael Sweetney	26	26	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-5	7	16.0	15.7	0.26	15.8	16.1	-0.29
Othella Harrington	27	27	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	1	-5	15.6	15.9	-0.31	15.5	16.2	-0.70
Malik Allen	5	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	1	-5	18.8	15.6	3.16	14.0	16.1	-2.10
Chris Duhon	50	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-4	5	15.4	16.3	-0.92	16.1	15.9	0.15
Ben Gordon	53	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	1	-5	16.3	15.1	1.26	15.3	17.1	-1.74
Luol Deng	68	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	-2	1	15.9	15.4	0.51	15.8	16.5	-0.72
Darius Songaila	56	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.64	6	-9	15	15.7	15.9	-0.21	16.4	15.4	0.92
Andres Nocioni	33	36	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.45	-9	6	-15	15.5	16.0	-0.56	15.6	16.3	-0.71
Kirk Hinrich	76	76	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.35	-13	10	-23	15.6	17.1	-1.50	16.2	15.0	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 97, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.66,0.76,0.54,0.77,0.92,0	90.3%
MIN 101, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.74,0.65,0.77,0.69,0.84,0.83,0.92,0	90.1%
MIL 93, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.7,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.86,0.64,0.83,0.73,0	89.8%