NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	8.6 [183]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +37.2%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	12.1 [150]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -22.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0.37	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,0.37	-0.09	0.46	-0.01	17	37%	0.49	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	13	65%	0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.00	9	45%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Austin Croshere	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.07,0.03,0,0	0.11	-0.09	0.02	30	55%	0.12	1	-0.12	9	78%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	4	137%	0.23	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.12,0.24,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	11	62%	0.16	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.07	0.01	10	64%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	8	37%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	10	55%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-0.01	16	55%	0.12	6	-0.35	12	83%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.3	30.3	18.8	24.0	2.4	37.0	141.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +37.7%

DAL +0.4%

DAL +10.2%

DAL +3.3%

TOR -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	15.4	106.6	104.3	104.5
season	16.3	15.2		108.7	104.7
opponent	15.4	15.2		104.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.8	16.0	16.1	14.7	16.1
TOR	15.6	14.0	16.6	15.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	57	60	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.51	6	-5	11	15.8	16.6	-0.86	15.1	15.9	-0.87
Dirk Nowitzki	88	89	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.40	7	-6	13	16.2	14.0	2.18	15.3	17.7	-2.37
Josh Howard	80	81	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.42	6	-5	11	15.9	17.4	-1.43	15.5	14.5	0.94
Devean George	42	42	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.63	-4	5	-9	15.6	16.6	-1.00	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Jason Terry	66	65	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.42	2	-1	3	16.4	15.4	0.98	15.3	15.6	-0.32
Greg Buckner	15	18	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	1	-1	15.7	16.2	-0.45	13.6	15.8	-2.19
Erick Dampier	52	52	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	4	-7	17.0	14.9	2.08	15.6	15.1	0.52
Austin Croshere	8	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	7	-13	15.6	16.2	-0.53	14.4	15.5	-1.03
Jerry Stackhouse	47	44	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.13	-3	4	-7	16.0	16.2	-0.27	16.5	14.3	2.21

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	44	45	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.13	7	-8	15	15.7	15.1	0.55	15.8	16.4	-0.57
Jose Calderon	32	32	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.07	5	-6	11	15.7	15.2	0.54	16.2	16.0	0.22
Rasho Nesterovic	29	30	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.01	7	-8	15	16.4	14.9	1.52	17.9	15.2	2.72
Jorge Garbajosa	51	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.12	-8	7	-15	16.2	14.3	1.90	15.9	16.3	-0.38
Andrea Bargnani	63	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	1	-3	15.0	16.2	-1.22	15.6	17.2	-1.61
Anthony Parker	65	65	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.56	-1	0	-1	15.3	15.6	-0.37	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Morris Peterson	39	36	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.57	-2	1	-3	14.7	15.8	-1.13	15.5	16.5	-0.96
Chris Bosh	77	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.49	-5	4	-9	15.0	17.3	-2.35	16.4	14.5	1.97
T.J. Ford	60	59	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.54	-6	5	-11	15.2	15.7	-0.54	16.0	16.2	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.66,0.76,0.54,0.77,0.92,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 98, IND 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.77,0	92.4%
PHX 97, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.53,0.62,0.85,0.84,0.84,0	91.4%
IND 103, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.91,0	90.5%