NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	6.7 [495]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +13.9%
Utah Jazz	94		Comeback	1.8 [346]		LVP	Deron Williams (UTA): -14.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.11	0.04	0.09	0.02	20	60%	0.24	5	-0.12	12	92%	0.07
Gary Payton	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	9	61%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.03	12	71%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	7	56%	0.12	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	14	39%	-0.00	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Gerald Fitch	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	48%	0.00	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.01	9	69%	0.16	2	-0.02	11	82%	0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.01	13	74%	0.19	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	11	64%	0.16	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	9	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Keith McLeod	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	9	25%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	11	27%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	26.7	16.7	23.4	1.7	37.2	136.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.1%

MIA +5.4%

MIA +22.0%

UTA -1.1%

UTA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.6	108.7	102.2	104.4
season	15.5	17.0		106.1	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		104.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	14.2	17.7	17.9	15.8
UTA	13.8	16.4	16.6	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	87	88	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.28	13	-7	20	16.0	11.4	4.62	15.7	12.7	2.91
James Posey	78	79	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	0	6	16.3	13.1	3.18	15.4	16.3	-0.90
Antoine Walker	48	46	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	6	-6	15.0	16.6	-1.53	15.5	15.6	-0.15
Shaquille O'Neal	64	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	-4	14	16.4	14.3	2.14	15.3	16.0	-0.71
Udonis Haslem	48	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	-3	12	16.0	15.5	0.56	14.7	16.5	-1.75
Gary Payton	48	48	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.32	-1	7	-8	16.0	15.5	0.52	15.6	15.5	0.15
Gerald Fitch	49	48	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	6	-6	15.1	16.6	-1.48	15.2	15.9	-0.63
Alonzo Mourning	23	22	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	11	-16	14.8	16.1	-1.26	17.1	15.0	2.11
Wayne Simien	15	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	8	-10	13.4	16.2	-2.83	17.7	15.1	2.55

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	15	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-7	8	16.8	15.3	1.51	12.3	16.5	-4.19
Jarron Collins	25	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-5	4	13.8	16.2	-2.38	14.4	16.3	-1.88
Deron Williams	52	51	-0.12	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-8	10	16.4	14.3	2.09	14.4	17.5	-3.18
Mehmet Okur	67	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-9	12	14.6	18.0	-3.44	16.0	15.0	0.99
Greg Ostertag	29	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-1	-4	18.2	14.3	3.91	15.4	15.9	-0.49
Keith McLeod	24	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	5	-16	15.3	15.6	-0.27	17.3	15.2	2.07
Milt Palacio	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-8	10	15.6	15.5	0.08	16.4	15.1	1.35
Matt Harpring	49	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-6	6	16.0	15.0	1.09	15.2	16.4	-1.17
Gordan Giricek	44	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	0	-6	14.1	16.9	-2.76	17.0	14.6	2.45
Andrei Kirilenko	85	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.26	-10	4	-14	15.3	18.1	-2.83	15.9	14.0	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.11,0.21,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 109, GSW 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.15,0.1,0.19,0.12,0.03,0.1,0	92.8%
CHI 89, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	92.7%
MIN 104, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.15,0	92.7%