NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	114		Excitement	13.1 [9]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +34.4%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	2.3 [399]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -37.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.34	0.09	0.24	-0.01	17	60%	0.43	2	-0.09	11	91%	0.09
Devin Harris	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.33	-0.00	0.33	-0.00	8	55%	0.39	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	1	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	15	53%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Terry	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.21,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,-0.03	0.07	-0.11	-0.01	20	64%	0.17	4	-0.20	2	50%	-0.06
Keith Van Horn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	9	39%	-0.06	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,0.26	0.26	-0.07	0.31	-0.02	9	30%	0.28	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.13	0.00	5	109%	0.27	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.12	0.00	13	58%	0.21	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.05	0.18	-0.01	24	51%	0.45	6	-0.31	7	57%	-0.16
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	10	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	11	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.3,-0.38	-0.38	-0.07	-0.32	-0.01	19	44%	-0.19	3	-0.19	10	90%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.5	1.8	31.7	16.0	24.1	1.7	44.4	0.8	21.0	168.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -9.8%

DAL +7.6%

DAL +61.5%

DEN -14.1%

DAL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	14.2	15.6	111.8	108.7	104.4
season	16.4	14.4		109.0	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.5	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	16.7	15.7	16.9	17.5	19.1	16.8
DEN	12.6	12.6	15.9	16.0	14.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	37	37	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.69	1	1	0	17.2	16.6	0.63	13.4	14.7	-1.32
Jason Terry	83	84	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-5	12	17.2	15.2	2.01	14.4	13.3	1.14
Josh Howard	79	79	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-7	16	16.7	17.2	-0.43	14.6	12.8	1.83
Dirk Nowitzki	82	83	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	17.0	16.3	0.61	14.5	12.8	1.67
Erick Dampier	44	48	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	-3	8	18.3	15.7	2.55	15.7	12.9	2.87
Jerry Stackhouse	48	48	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	-1	4	15.1	18.4	-3.21	12.8	15.4	-2.55
Adrian Griffin	39	40	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.21	-5	7	-12	17.4	16.5	0.96	13.9	14.4	-0.48
Darrell Armstrong	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	3	-4	16.0	16.9	-0.90	12.2	14.3	-2.10
Devin Harris	53	55	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.11	-8	10	-18	17.0	16.7	0.29	14.5	13.8	0.75
Keith Van Horn	39	36	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.29	-2	4	-6	15.4	17.7	-2.32	12.7	15.0	-2.26

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	58	60	0.46	-0.96	1.41	0.40	2	-4	6	14.4	13.9	0.54	16.8	16.9	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	11	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-2	2	13.8	14.2	-0.42	17.3	16.8	0.51
Earl Watson	33	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	1	-4	14.2	14.2	-0.02	15.8	17.4	-1.60
Eduardo Najera	63	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-6	10	13.9	14.7	-0.79	16.2	17.9	-1.74
Greg Buckner	55	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	1	-4	14.3	14.1	0.25	16.6	17.1	-0.57
Earl Boykins	72	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.45	0	-2	2	13.8	15.1	-1.34	16.8	16.9	-0.09
Andre Miller	86	85	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-1	0	14.4	13.1	1.36	17.4	14.3	3.06
Carmelo Anthony	88	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.49	0	-2	2	14.0	15.6	-1.65	16.7	17.6	-0.89
Kenyon Martin	49	49	-1.06	0.56	-1.61	-0.73	-11	9	-20	14.9	13.6	1.34	17.7	16.0	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 104, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.53,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.54,0.69,0.71,0.32,0.04,0	90.5%
PHX 126, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.56,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.47,0.45,0.33,0.58,0.46,0.54,0.37,0.09,0,0	90.2%
CHI 100, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.24,0.46,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.34,0.27,0	90.0%