NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	7.3 [380]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +31.8%
Detroit Pistons	106		Comeback	1.6 [882]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -8.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22	0.16	0.06	-0.01	20	73%	0.41	4	-0.19	5	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.01	0.14	-0.00	6	57%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	16	59%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	30%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	42%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.08	0.03	21	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	10	40%	-0.12

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.15	0.21	0.04	17	65%	0.34	1	-0.02	12	100%	0.08
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.09	0.01	15	66%	0.23	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	16	62%	0.16	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	57%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	13	50%	0.10	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.8	33.3	19.6	30.1	2.8	33.4	147.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +7.1%

DET +20.2%

DET +13.4%

DET +4.1%

DET +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.4	17.5	15.6	116.1	120.5	104.4
season	15.5	16.9		106.1	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	15.7	17.0	14.3	15.4
DET	18.3	14.9	18.1	19.0	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	23	21	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.00	5	-10	15	14.0	15.8	-1.78	18.6	17.2	1.35
Antoine Walker	28	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-6	7	14.5	15.7	-1.21	17.0	17.8	-0.86
James Posey	52	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-1	-3	16.2	14.2	1.98	17.1	18.3	-1.27
Dwyane Wade	83	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-6	7	15.1	21.0	-5.92	17.8	12.8	5.03
Udonis Haslem	57	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	1	-7	16.1	13.9	2.22	18.1	16.4	1.69
Jason Williams	72	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	14.5	19.6	-5.13	18.2	14.5	3.72
Gary Payton	56	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	3	-11	15.8	14.6	1.21	16.4	19.5	-3.07
Shaquille O'Neal	64	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.35	-10	5	-15	15.8	14.0	1.78	17.2	18.6	-1.35

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	80	79	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-8	21	17.3	19.5	-2.15	15.6	13.1	2.46
Ben Wallace	66	66	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-2	9	17.5	17.5	0.00	15.7	14.2	1.47
Chauncey Billups	72	70	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	17.8	16.2	1.66	15.0	16.8	-1.82
Rasheed Wallace	68	68	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	5	-5	18.2	15.1	3.10	15.0	16.7	-1.70
Carlos Delfino	14	14	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	0	5	17.9	17.5	0.37	18.1	14.8	3.24
Tayshaun Prince	74	72	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	7	-9	17.8	16.0	1.84	14.6	19.0	-4.40
Antonio McDyess	37	36	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	3	-1	16.4	18.4	-1.97	15.9	15.0	0.86
Carlos Arroyo	17	18	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	4	-3	15.3	18.1	-2.79	16.4	15.1	1.30
Maurice Evans	12	12	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	10	-15	17.6	17.5	0.04	14.4	15.5	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 119, DEN 122	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.72,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.67,0.45,0.63,0.55,0.83,1	94.5%
SAS 103, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.76,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.66,1,1	92.1%
ATL 98, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.79,0.75,0.93,1	92.1%