NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	12.7 [13]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +63.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	109		Comeback	11.7 [155]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -36.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	6	73%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.11,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	28	55%	0.21	2	-0.12	6	67%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	4	87%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	2	67%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Michael Finley	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	40%	-0.03	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	11	36%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,-0.08,-0.11,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25	-0.08	-0.17	0.00	21	46%	-0.15	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.64	0.64	0.04	0.59	-0.01	14	56%	0.67	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.15
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	83%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	68%	0.14	4	-0.15	5	60%	-0.07
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	9	58%	0.05	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.06
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.09	-0.09	0.16	-0.23	0.02	18	68%	-0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.08
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	12	25%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.28,-0.37,-0.37	-0.37	-0.03	-0.32	0.02	20	44%	-0.35	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	28.5	15.4	26.0	1.8	34.0	1.6	28.2	162.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +15.6%

SAS -8.2%

MIL +43.7%

MIL +2.3%

SAS -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	16.6	15.6	110.3	117.2	104.4
season	16.3	15.5		106.0	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		106.0	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.2	18.3	18.5	18.3	13.6	16.8
MIL	18.8	13.0	17.5	18.6	15.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	41	40	0.26	-0.73	0.99	-0.07	11	-13	24	17.4	16.4	1.03	17.0	16.4	0.62
Nazr Mohammed	33	31	0.16	-0.63	0.79	-0.10	9	-11	20	16.2	17.2	-0.91	18.4	15.7	2.69
Nick Van Exel	37	36	0.15	-0.62	0.77	0.03	4	-6	10	16.9	16.8	0.12	16.4	16.7	-0.29
Tim Duncan	75	72	0.10	-0.57	0.67	0.33	-8	6	-14	17.7	14.0	3.74	16.7	16.4	0.31
Robert Horry	32	32	-0.42	-0.06	-0.36	-0.56	5	-7	12	16.2	17.2	-0.98	16.0	17.0	-1.00
Bruce Bowen	82	78	-0.49	0.02	-0.51	-0.23	-9	7	-16	16.2	20.5	-4.28	17.1	14.3	2.73
Tony Parker	79	76	-0.61	0.14	-0.75	-0.38	-8	6	-14	16.9	16.6	0.29	16.2	18.4	-2.19
Rasho Nesterovic	49	46	-0.82	0.35	-1.17	-0.59	-8	6	-14	16.9	16.8	0.07	16.8	16.4	0.36
Michael Finley	58	55	-0.87	0.39	-1.26	-0.63	-8	6	-14	16.8	16.9	-0.17	15.3	18.5	-3.13

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	82	84	0.68	-0.21	0.89	0.48	7	-5	12	16.4	18.2	-1.77	16.6	18.2	-1.60
Jamaal Magloire	65	65	0.61	-0.13	0.74	0.26	12	-10	22	15.9	18.2	-2.33	17.5	15.5	2.01
Andrew Bogut	50	51	0.57	-0.10	0.67	0.40	6	-4	10	17.4	15.8	1.59	16.5	17.2	-0.75
Toni Kukoc	31	34	0.53	-0.05	0.58	0.61	-3	5	-8	17.5	16.2	1.29	16.6	17.0	-0.44
Michael Redd	74	77	0.32	0.16	0.16	0.29	1	1	0	16.6	16.8	-0.21	16.4	18.5	-2.15
Mo Williams	66	69	0.21	0.27	-0.06	0.32	-4	6	-10	16.2	17.8	-1.63	16.9	16.7	0.23
Jermaine Jackson	0	1	0.01	0.47	-0.46	0.03	-1	3	-4	0.0	16.6	-16.62	2.0	17.0	-15.00
Jiri Welsch	22	24	-0.00	0.48	-0.48	0.11	-4	6	-10	17.9	16.2	1.68	18.0	16.5	1.59
Bobby Simmons	58	59	-0.11	0.59	-0.70	-0.35	8	-6	14	16.3	17.1	-0.83	17.5	15.8	1.65
Dan Gadzuric	8	10	-0.15	0.62	-0.77	0.00	-5	7	-12	16.6	16.6	0.00	15.4	17.0	-1.61
Ervin Johnson	9	11	-0.28	0.76	-1.04	-0.08	-7	9	-16	19.2	16.3	2.88	16.4	16.9	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.45,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.6,0.72,0.61,0.72,0.65,0.6,0.46,0.39,0.48,0.33,0.09,0.98
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 113, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.83,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.23,0.42,1	87.6%
SAC 141, GSW 143	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.73,0.53,0.72,0.68,0.92,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.27,1	87.1%
CHI 107, UTA 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.03,0.15,1	87.0%