NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Excitement	7.9 [271]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +45.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	5.8 [505]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (CLE): -27.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.46	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.46	0.36	0.12	0.02	29	76%	0.54	3	-0.08	10	90%	0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.02	-0.00	13	67%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Eric Snow	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	60%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Alan Henderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Mike Wilks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Damon Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	41%	0.04	3	-0.11	6	83%	-0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28	-0.08	-0.20	-0.01	8	50%	-0.04	5	-0.23	2	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36	0.36	0.19	0.17	0.00	12	96%	0.42	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.15	-0.00	9	58%	0.22	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.09	0.01	14	66%	0.24	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.06	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.03
Michael Redd	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.02	20	51%	0.03	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.08	0.03	11	53%	-0.05	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	27.1	16.4	29.6	2.7	39.8	142.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +3.3%

CLE -8.9%

MIL +43.7%

MIL +16.7%

CLE -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.8	15.6	116.5	120.7	104.4
season	16.2	15.5		105.6	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.9	17.7	17.0	13.5	15.7
MIL	15.8	17.4	14.3	15.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	24	24	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-10	15	14.4	16.2	-1.80	13.7	16.5	-2.85
Mike Wilks	27	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.24	6	-11	17	15.4	15.8	-0.37	17.5	15.1	2.36
Alan Henderson	21	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	2	-9	16.5	15.5	1.07	15.3	15.9	-0.63
Drew Gooden	38	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.04	-9	4	-13	17.7	14.3	3.40	15.8	15.7	0.14
Donyell Marshall	65	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.43	5	-10	15	14.6	18.5	-3.97	15.3	16.8	-1.48
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	61	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-7	9	15.8	15.4	0.40	17.0	13.2	3.82
LeBron James	84	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	15.2	21.4	-6.20	15.2	21.7	-6.55
Eric Snow	56	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	1	-7	16.7	14.1	2.68	17.1	13.6	3.46
Larry Hughes	79	81	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.24	-18	13	-31	15.6	16.2	-0.53	15.0	21.5	-6.45

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	73	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-10	25	14.7	19.8	-5.06	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Bobby Simmons	73	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-8	21	15.5	16.8	-1.28	16.0	14.4	1.62
Andrew Bogut	62	60	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-10	25	16.1	15.0	1.15	16.6	14.0	2.58
Toni Kukoc	51	51	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.47	-4	9	-13	14.8	17.0	-2.26	13.8	18.1	-4.23
Michael Redd	73	74	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.38	-4	9	-13	15.6	16.3	-0.69	15.0	18.6	-3.62
Jamaal Magloire	52	51	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.06	9	-4	13	15.8	15.7	0.08	16.6	14.5	2.15
Mo Williams	40	39	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	4	-3	16.2	15.4	0.76	16.1	15.4	0.65
Dan Gadzuric	19	20	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.13	-10	15	-25	17.2	15.4	1.75	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Charlie Bell	17	16	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.10	-10	15	-25	21.0	14.6	6.41	16.7	15.5	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.94,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 73, CLE 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	91.8%
MIA 96, BOS 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.61,0.55,0.85,0.84,1	91.5%
ATL 102, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.17,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.54,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.85,1	91.4%