NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	7.1 [401]		MVP	Chris Andersen (MIA): +31.1%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	4.0 [137]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -22.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.14	0.17	0.00	7	84%	0.31	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Ray Allen	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.00	11	54%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	8	87%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.06	4	-0.12	3	67%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	17	46%	-0.01	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	6	58%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	11	27%	-0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.06	0.01	13	85%	0.33	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.02	12	69%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.01	6	77%	0.16	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.00	13	50%	0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.12	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	6	58%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.0	30.1	15.4	25.5	2.5	30.2	126.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +59.8%

MIA -5.5%

BOS +2.4%

MIA -8.1%

BOS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	17.0	15.1	112.9	116.1	105.2
season	15.6	15.4		109.7	101.2
opponent	15.0	15.8		106.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	19.2	15.8	18.2	16.5
BOS	15.1	15.1	18.5	19.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	45	48	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.21	12	-17	29	14.9	18.4	-3.53	17.2	16.7	0.52
Michael Beasley	54	53	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-3	1	15.9	17.6	-1.76	15.6	19.1	-3.46
Chris Andersen	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-2	-1	18.5	15.3	3.25	18.7	16.0	2.69
Chris Bosh	63	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-10	15	15.6	19.1	-3.46	17.5	15.1	2.39
Shane Battier	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-1	-3	17.6	16.1	1.57	14.9	17.8	-2.95
Ray Allen	51	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-8	11	17.7	14.7	2.99	18.1	15.2	2.90
Udonis Haslem	52	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-2	-1	15.3	18.5	-3.25	16.2	18.2	-2.05
Norris Cole	44	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	7	-19	18.4	14.5	3.94	18.0	15.9	2.11
Dwyane Wade	58	60	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.35	-21	16	-37	16.4	16.8	-0.36	16.3	18.5	-2.21

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Sullinger	54	51	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.43	11	-6	17	16.8	17.2	-0.42	18.3	13.9	4.41
Avery Bradley	75	73	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-7	19	16.5	19.6	-3.05	16.9	14.4	2.46
Jeff Green	58	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	-1	7	17.2	16.4	0.86	15.9	17.7	-1.71
Rajon Rondo	70	68	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	7	-9	16.8	17.8	-1.01	15.8	19.6	-3.82
Brandon Bass	55	54	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	5	-5	17.2	16.5	0.72	15.6	18.1	-2.52
Kris Humphries	29	31	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	5	-5	15.4	17.7	-2.26	13.9	18.1	-4.18
Kelly Olynyk	36	34	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	5	-5	18.0	16.2	1.78	17.8	15.7	2.06
Chris Johnson	14	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	4	-3	13.5	17.6	-4.12	17.5	16.3	1.14
Jerryd Bayless	44	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	7	-9	18.7	15.2	3.54	17.6	15.5	2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.61,0.55,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 107, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.77,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.93,0.91,1	93.1%
GSW 85, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.85,0.95,1	92.2%
CLE 96, NYK 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.77,0.91,1	92.1%