NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	102		Excitement	7.4 [363]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +89.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	1427.6 [1]		LVP	Jamaal Magloire (MIL): -17.8%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.09	-0.05	14	57%	0.22	4	-0.07	14	64%	-0.01
Fred Jones	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.00	11	63%	0.17	3	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	11	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.03
Jermaine O'Neal	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.04	-0.00	-0.03	-0.08	24	47%	0.07	2	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	2	112%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Scot Pollard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	56%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eddie Gill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Anthony Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14	-0.19	-0.01	-0.06	4	0%	-0.05	5	-0.09	2	0%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.89	0.89	0.07	0.82	-0.00	11	79%	0.98	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.07	0.04	22	47%	0.09	2	-0.05	15	87%	0.07
Charlie Bell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	15	53%	0.04	4	-0.13	6	67%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	16	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	10	35%	-0.05	4	-0.13	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.0	32.2	15.7	27.9	0.6	51.2	157.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +47.2%

MIL +5.1%

MIL +19.3%

IND -25.1%

MIL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.2	15.6	100.0	101.0	104.4
season	16.0	15.5		102.3	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.2	15.1	15.5	11.2	14.1
MIL	14.8	14.9	15.1	12.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sarunas Jasikevicius	42	42	0.63	-1.13	1.75	0.07	19	-20	39	13.6	14.4	-0.80	15.6	13.1	2.47
Scot Pollard	49	47	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-5	9	15.5	12.8	2.74	15.9	12.7	3.24
Austin Croshere	29	30	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-1	1	15.0	13.7	1.35	15.8	13.5	2.36
Eddie Gill	3	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.08	-4	3	-7	14.7	14.1	0.62	8.2	14.4	-6.16
Fred Jones	70	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.49	6	-7	13	12.7	17.1	-4.36	13.8	15.0	-1.17
Jermaine O'Neal	84	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.50	-2	1	-3	14.1	13.9	0.15	13.7	16.3	-2.63
Metta World Peace	85	85	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.52	-5	4	-9	14.0	14.2	-0.13	13.6	17.0	-3.40
Stephen Jackson	77	76	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.56	-7	6	-13	14.0	14.3	-0.33	14.2	14.2	0.02
Anthony Johnson	71	72	-0.96	0.46	-1.42	-0.49	-16	15	-31	14.4	13.4	1.03	13.4	16.1	-2.69

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	84	84	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.55	10	-9	19	13.6	16.8	-3.24	14.0	14.3	-0.25
Jiri Welsch	32	31	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.76	1	0	1	13.1	14.7	-1.61	12.5	14.7	-2.23
Bobby Simmons	69	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.53	6	-5	11	14.5	13.4	1.14	14.1	14.0	0.15
Jamaal Magloire	71	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.67	-5	6	-11	14.7	13.0	1.63	15.4	11.3	4.09
Mo Williams	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.54	-8	9	-17	13.9	14.5	-0.56	12.7	15.7	-3.00
Charlie Bell	1	1	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	-1	3	7.0	14.2	-7.24	3.0	14.2	-11.18
Dan Gadzuric	5	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	4	-7	16.2	14.1	2.14	15.0	14.0	0.98
T.J. Ford	85	84	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.34	5	-4	9	14.3	13.7	0.55	14.4	12.3	2.11
Joe Smith	51	51	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.20	-1	2	-3	14.5	13.8	0.69	15.4	12.8	2.57
Andrew Bogut	57	59	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.22	-2	3	-5	14.3	14.0	0.34	13.1	15.4	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, SAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.29,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.35,0.28,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,1	91.5%
DAL 96, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.1,1	90.7%
SAC 99, LAL 100	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.24,0.18,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,1	90.1%