NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	8.4 [208]		MVP	Metta World Peace (IND): +23.2%
Indiana Pacers	95		Comeback	6.2 [383]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -27.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.08	0.00	11	73%	0.20	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	6	50%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Wayne Simien	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jason Kapono	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24	-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	16	39%	-0.04	6	-0.21	4	25%	-0.07
Dwyane Wade	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.28,-0.32,-0.32,-0.27,-0.19,-0.14,-0.27	-0.12	-0.15	0.00	24	51%	0.04	10	-0.31	9	78%	0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.23	0.23	-0.02	0.24	-0.01	19	48%	0.30	3	-0.07	12	58%	0.03
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	0.00	4	73%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	86%	0.06	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.05	0.02	9	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.02
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	11	37%	-0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.07
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	17	40%	0.00	5	-0.13	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.9	3.5	33.4	17.5	33.4	3.5	38.2	159.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +0.3%

IND +18.6%

IND +0.7%

IND +28.5%

IND +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	14.1	15.6	93.8	101.1	104.4
season	15.5	16.0		106.1	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		100.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	16.7	15.4	16.8	16.2
IND	11.7	14.6	13.9	16.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	51	51	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.13	5	-10	15	16.9	15.4	1.59	15.4	12.6	2.79
Udonis Haslem	82	81	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-11	17	16.1	16.6	-0.44	13.7	16.4	-2.66
Jason Williams	76	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-10	15	16.3	15.8	0.50	14.7	11.8	2.89
Dwyane Wade	79	78	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.33	5	-10	15	16.4	15.4	0.96	13.8	15.6	-1.77
Jason Kapono	20	19	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	4	-13	15.0	16.5	-1.45	14.5	14.0	0.54
Wayne Simien	35	35	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	9	-23	15.3	16.7	-1.48	12.4	15.1	-2.70
Antoine Walker	82	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-3	1	16.2	16.1	0.06	13.9	15.2	-1.31
Gary Payton	55	52	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.31	-21	16	-37	16.2	16.2	0.05	14.3	13.8	0.52

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Jones	46	48	0.98	-0.48	1.47	0.51	16	-11	27	14.4	13.8	0.66	15.7	16.6	-0.90
Sarunas Jasikevicius	49	51	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-5	15	14.9	13.2	1.72	16.0	16.4	-0.46
Stephen Jackson	74	74	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	6	-7	13.8	15.3	-1.53	16.6	14.7	1.91
Jermaine O'Neal	73	73	0.28	0.21	0.07	0.31	-1	6	-7	13.8	15.1	-1.35	16.7	14.5	2.26
Metta World Peace	75	78	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	3	-1	14.1	13.9	0.25	16.2	16.1	0.11
David Harrison	23	26	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	1	3	13.7	14.2	-0.47	15.8	16.4	-0.59
Scot Pollard	13	13	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	2	1	15.4	13.9	1.50	16.5	16.2	0.30
Danny Granger	17	17	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	3	-1	14.6	14.0	0.67	14.8	16.5	-1.67
Austin Croshere	55	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.12	-5	10	-15	14.3	13.9	0.38	15.8	16.7	-0.89
Jamaal Tinsley	45	45	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	10	-15	13.2	14.9	-1.72	16.4	16.0	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.75,0.63,0.55,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 76, IND 81	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.47,0.73,1	90.7%
CHA 93, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.72,1	89.9%
CLE 98, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.38,0.48,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.57,0.58,1	89.8%