NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	8.2 [243]		MVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): +19.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	102		Comeback	1.5 [476]		LVP	Damon Stoudamire (POR): -44.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.11	0.01	15	67%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	17	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	16	35%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	3	50%	-0.01	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.18,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3	-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	19	43%	-0.19	4	-0.11	13	77%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	9	79%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.02
Ha Seung-Jin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	18	63%	0.11	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.02
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	83%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Viktor Khryapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	9	48%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-0.14	0.02	14	68%	0.07	4	-0.20	3	100%	0.02
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.18,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.44	-0.44	-0.20	-0.25	-0.01	19	31%	-0.30	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.7	28.3	15.6	21.2	2.4	36.2	132.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +11.1%

POR -6.3%

GSW +31.4%

GSW +12.8%

GSW +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	POR	NBA	GSW	POR	NBA
this game	15.1	14.1	15.5	104.0	105.2	104.0
season	15.0	15.8		102.3	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.2		105.4	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	13.6	16.5	18.4	15.1
POR	11.9	14.6	12.3	18.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	77	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.51	1	1	0	15.4	14.1	1.31	13.8	15.0	-1.22
Troy Murphy	75	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.52	-1	3	-4	15.5	14.0	1.52	13.6	15.4	-1.72
Adonal Foyle	71	66	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.38	1	1	0	15.4	14.6	0.83	14.4	13.5	0.93
Jason Richardson	77	73	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.48	-5	7	-12	15.5	13.9	1.59	13.8	15.0	-1.22
Mickael Pietrus	41	41	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	-3	8	14.8	15.4	-0.57	15.1	13.3	1.76
Mike Dunleavy	75	73	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.23	2	0	2	15.3	14.8	0.51	13.8	15.0	-1.16
Rodney White	13	13	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.07	9	-7	16	12.5	15.5	-3.08	17.3	13.6	3.72
Derek Fisher	42	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	5	-8	14.2	15.8	-1.68	14.4	13.8	0.56
Andris Biedrins	29	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	1	0	14.6	15.4	-0.83	13.5	14.4	-0.93

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	81	85	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.42	17	-19	36	13.3	17.8	-4.47	15.8	11.3	4.48
Ha Seung-Jin	8	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-1	0	12.2	14.2	-2.00	15.4	15.1	0.33
Richie Frahm	22	22	-0.12	-0.39	0.27	-0.44	11	-13	24	14.6	13.9	0.66	16.1	14.9	1.28
Viktor Khryapa	21	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.19	-13	11	-24	13.1	14.4	-1.26	12.8	15.8	-2.95
Travis Outlaw	51	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	6	-14	14.3	13.9	0.40	14.5	15.8	-1.37
Ruben Patterson	88	90	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.53	8	-10	18	13.9	15.6	-1.62	15.5	12.2	3.27
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	86	88	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.42	-1	-1	0	14.5	11.2	3.27	15.3	13.9	1.39
Joel Przybilla	84	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.49	-2	0	-2	14.2	13.3	0.89	15.2	14.5	0.69
Sebastian Telfair	44	47	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.05	-21	19	-40	15.1	13.2	1.89	14.1	16.1	-2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 106, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.23,0.25,0.11,0.02,0.01,0	93.3%
LAL 91, BOS 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.22,0.09,0	92.9%
PHI 82, MIA 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.34,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.01,0	92.8%