NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	6.9 [468]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +22.9%
Detroit Pistons	110		Comeback	1.5 [953]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -11.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.05	-0.04	13	58%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.00	8	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	6	78%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	11	60%	0.10	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	65%	0.05	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.06	0.00	10	59%	0.08	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	14	43%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.12	0.02	12	81%	0.27	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	83%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	16	55%	0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	60%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	59%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Ronald Dupree	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	33%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	12	44%	-0.02	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.3	28.5	16.8	29.2	3.7	39.0	148.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -0.5%

DET +31.1%

DET +26.9%

SAS -10.8%

DET +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	15.0	17.3	15.5	113.5	123.6	104.0
season	16.3	16.7		105.8	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	18.3	13.0	14.0	15.0
DET	17.5	16.0	16.5	19.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	30	28	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.01	6	-15	21	15.6	14.7	0.82	19.2	16.5	2.69
Dion Glover	10	9	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-10	11	16.1	14.9	1.21	22.0	16.8	5.19
Tim Duncan	3	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-8	7	17.0	15.0	2.05	18.7	17.3	1.48
Brent Barry	34	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-10	11	14.1	15.6	-1.56	17.1	17.5	-0.41
Bruce Bowen	34	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-5	1	16.6	14.0	2.58	17.5	17.2	0.31
Tony Massenburg	13	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-1	-7	18.8	14.4	4.48	14.3	17.9	-3.55
Robert Horry	56	56	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-9	9	15.4	14.5	0.90	17.6	16.9	0.68
Nazr Mohammed	43	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	13.1	16.8	-3.64	15.9	18.8	-2.87
Rasho Nesterovic	63	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-7	5	15.1	14.8	0.36	18.7	14.4	4.35
Beno Udrih	36	35	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	2	-13	14.8	15.2	-0.32	18.3	16.7	1.61
Devin Brown	59	60	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.26	-9	0	-9	14.2	16.6	-2.43	17.3	17.3	0.04
Tony Parker	64	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	2	-13	15.1	14.8	0.37	15.4	22.8	-7.40

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	71	70	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.17	12	-3	15	17.5	16.7	0.77	16.0	11.4	4.58
Carlos Arroyo	46	47	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.04	15	-6	21	16.4	18.4	-2.00	14.1	16.0	-1.85
Chauncey Billups	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.18	9	0	9	16.7	19.1	-2.45	15.9	12.7	3.17
Carlos Delfino	36	38	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	0	9	17.7	17.1	0.60	15.2	14.9	0.28
Ben Wallace	65	65	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	4	1	16.3	20.1	-3.76	14.5	16.5	-2.02
Tayshaun Prince	67	64	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.30	-2	11	-13	17.4	17.0	0.45	15.0	15.2	-0.25
Antonio McDyess	42	43	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	8	-7	18.6	16.2	2.47	14.3	15.7	-1.48
Ronald Dupree	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	9	-9	20.0	17.3	2.69	4.0	15.1	-11.15
Richard Hamilton	52	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	13	-17	18.6	15.6	2.98	14.9	15.2	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.87,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.95,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 89, VAN 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.97,1,1	92.9%
IND 76, LAL 79	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.8,0.7,0.47,0.69,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	92.5%
MEM 77, OKC 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.95,1,1,1	92.5%