NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	6.6 [540]		MVP	Viktor Khryapa (POR): +12.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	92		Comeback	1.5 [466]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (POR): -20.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	14	70%	0.19	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Kelvin Cato	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	11	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.01	-0.06	8	44%	0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.01	16	42%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	15	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	19	42%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	11	18%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Viktor Khryapa	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	-0.01	0.04	10	95%	0.18	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Baker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	57%	0.02	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	13	45%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.04	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	15	46%	-0.04	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.05	-0.03	5	33%	-0.09	4	-0.07	5	60%	-0.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.07	0.00	12	41%	-0.11	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	28.4	15.6	25.2	1.8	37.2	132.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR -4.0%

POR -9.7%

ORL +28.4%

ORL +32.2%

ORL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	POR	NBA	ORL	POR	NBA
this game	15.0	16.2	15.5	105.4	98.9	104.0
season	14.3	15.8		102.9	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.1	16.0	16.2	14.9	15.0
POR	15.1	16.7	18.1	15.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	59	61	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.11	26	-21	47	13.8	17.0	-3.20	17.2	14.2	2.95
Grant Hill	68	69	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-9	23	14.7	15.9	-1.21	16.8	14.4	2.39
DeShawn Stevenson	61	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-8	21	15.3	14.4	0.89	16.3	15.8	0.56
Dwight Howard	59	60	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-10	25	14.8	15.3	-0.55	17.5	13.7	3.76
Jameer Nelson	72	74	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	0	5	15.0	14.9	0.10	16.3	15.5	0.85
Hedo Turkoglu	56	57	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.37	-9	14	-23	15.2	14.6	0.56	15.4	17.3	-1.93
Tony Battie	48	48	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.34	-19	24	-43	16.2	13.7	2.53	14.3	18.1	-3.76
Mario Kasun	18	17	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.11	-12	17	-29	16.2	14.7	1.48	12.9	16.9	-3.93
Stacey Augmon	19	19	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.01	-8	13	-21	14.4	15.1	-0.70	14.8	16.5	-1.64

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	37	34	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.15	15	-20	35	14.8	17.1	-2.27	16.7	14.0	2.69
Maurice Baker	1	0	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-5	5	0.0	16.3	-16.33	0.0	15.0	-14.98
Theo Ratliff	52	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-9	13	16.0	16.4	-0.43	15.3	14.6	0.62
Darius Miles	38	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-2	-1	15.1	16.9	-1.72	13.3	16.1	-2.83
Sebastian Telfair	68	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	1	-7	16.7	14.7	2.01	14.4	17.0	-2.56
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	81	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	16.5	13.9	2.56	14.7	16.8	-2.18
Joel Przybilla	51	53	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	8	-21	16.1	16.2	-0.07	15.2	14.7	0.41
Viktor Khryapa	63	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.37	-6	1	-7	16.3	15.9	0.37	15.5	13.9	1.62
Damon Stoudamire	74	74	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.30	-13	8	-21	16.8	13.7	3.03	15.2	14.2	1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.46,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	94.1%
SEA 103, PHX 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.03,0,0	93.6%
CHI 89, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	93.5%