NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	82		Excitement	4.5 [950]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +10.8%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.9 [878]		LVP	Jerome Williams (NYK): -7.4%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Sweetney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	18	51%	0.02	3	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	10	35%	-0.01	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	52%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Kurt Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	16	59%	0.03	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01
Maurice Taylor	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.03	-0.06	21	59%	0.17	3	-0.06	9	67%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	65%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	21	59%	0.05	3	-0.06	14	64%	-0.05
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	5	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	4	30%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	7	20%	-0.07	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	27.3	15.8	27.6	2.0	30.2	129.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +12.2%

MIA +14.7%

MIA +12.2%

MIA +12.8%

NYK -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	17.0	15.5	92.1	110.2	104.0
season	15.8	15.7		103.9	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		101.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	13.9	18.7	13.5	16.4	15.6
MIA	18.8	14.7	17.2	17.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	61	62	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-19	23	14.0	19.0	-5.00	16.9	17.2	-0.25
Michael Sweetney	42	42	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-16	17	15.6	15.6	0.04	17.8	16.3	1.50
Jerome Williams	21	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-12	9	16.5	15.3	1.24	17.6	16.8	0.81
Kurt Thomas	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-8	1	14.8	17.3	-2.55	17.3	16.3	0.93
Stephon Marbury	75	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-9	3	14.6	20.6	-6.02	17.1	16.2	0.91
Malik Rose	34	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-5	-5	15.6	15.5	0.07	17.5	16.7	0.82
Anfernee Hardaway	17	17	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	-2	-11	18.3	14.9	3.36	15.9	17.2	-1.36
Maurice Taylor	19	20	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-3	-9	21.2	14.1	7.10	15.5	17.4	-1.91
Jamal Crawford	82	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-5	-5	15.4	17.7	-2.32	16.9	17.7	-0.80
Trevor Ariza	33	31	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.13	-19	4	-23	17.3	14.6	2.70	15.9	17.5	-1.61

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	49	48	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-1	17	17.4	16.4	1.06	17.1	13.8	3.23
Keyon Dooling	40	41	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	6	3	16.9	17.0	-0.05	17.7	13.8	3.91
Udonis Haslem	79	79	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.01	13	2	11	16.9	17.2	-0.27	14.8	21.3	-6.45
Dwyane Wade	76	77	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	8	-1	16.9	17.4	-0.51	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Michael Doleac	22	21	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	7	1	16.6	17.1	-0.52	19.6	14.3	5.30
Shaquille O'Neal	63	65	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	6	3	17.1	16.8	0.30	14.5	18.6	-4.12
Eddie Jones	51	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	8	-1	16.6	17.5	-0.83	14.4	17.3	-2.86
Christian Laettner	3	4	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	11	-7	14.0	17.1	-3.08	19.7	15.4	4.37
Damon Jones	48	48	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.11	6	9	-3	17.0	16.9	0.05	13.8	17.7	-3.91
Alonzo Mourning	9	9	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	19	-23	18.6	16.8	1.76	18.7	15.2	3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.3%
HOU 98, OKC 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1	95.1%
BOS 70, MIA 90	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%