NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	5.2 [798]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +28.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	106		Comeback	1.4 [890]		LVP	Dwight Howard (HOU): -13.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	5	110%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	21	57%	0.13	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.03
Omer Asik	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Donatas Motiejunas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Jordan Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	17	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.00	0.00	12	30%	-0.09	2	-0.04	6	17%	-0.06

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.22	0.08	0.01	22	70%	0.35	3	-0.07	16	81%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	14	57%	0.13	5	-0.08	14	79%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	14	43%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.5	2.5	35.2	14.8	28.2	2.4	34.5	150.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +24.9%

OKC +11.7%

OKC +3.2%

OKC +4.1%

OKC +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	13.6	14.6	15.1	96.1	103.9	105.2
season	14.3	14.4		109.5	107.8
opponent	15.4	15.2		102.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.9	14.4	12.7	14.6	13.6
OKC	13.8	13.3	14.5	17.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	35	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-12	16	12.3	14.3	-2.06	14.0	15.0	-0.99
Francisco Garcia	33	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.30	8	-16	24	13.4	13.7	-0.36	16.7	13.6	3.06
Donatas Motiejunas	18	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-5	2	11.5	14.1	-2.56	13.5	14.9	-1.42
Jordan Hamilton	21	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-6	4	13.0	13.8	-0.77	14.0	14.8	-0.78
Jeremy Lin	51	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-8	8	13.1	14.1	-1.06	14.8	14.4	0.39
Terrence Jones	44	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.07	-14	6	-20	14.8	12.7	2.09	13.2	15.7	-2.50
Patrick Beverley	52	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	0	-8	14.1	13.1	1.04	14.3	14.9	-0.57
James Harden	92	92	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-4	0	13.6	13.9	-0.32	14.9	11.9	3.02
Dwight Howard	67	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	4	-16	14.3	12.3	2.06	15.0	14.0	0.99
Chandler Parsons	97	97	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	1	-10	13.7	11.6	2.11	14.7	13.4	1.29

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	89	89	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-2	12	14.6	15.0	-0.43	13.4	15.0	-1.60
Russell Westbrook	63	63	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	14.8	14.3	0.48	13.7	13.5	0.11
Caron Butler	60	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	3	2	14.9	14.2	0.74	13.6	13.7	-0.13
Steven Adams	51	51	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	1	6	14.2	15.1	-0.90	14.0	13.2	0.86
Reggie Jackson	45	46	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	-1	10	14.2	15.0	-0.76	13.5	13.7	-0.16
Serge Ibaka	77	76	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	6	-4	15.3	12.7	2.58	13.9	12.7	1.18
Derek Fisher	50	49	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	8	-8	14.5	14.7	-0.17	12.8	14.4	-1.60
Perry Jones	47	45	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	10	-12	14.8	14.5	0.26	14.3	13.1	1.18
Jeremy Lamb	8	9	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	5	-2	12.1	14.8	-2.72	12.7	13.7	-1.03
Hasheem Thabeet	16	17	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	7	-6	14.5	14.7	-0.15	13.4	13.7	-0.31
Nick Collison	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	8	-8	11.7	14.7	-2.99	14.0	13.6	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
MIL 83, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.89,0.95,1,1,1	95.0%
CHA 100, BOS 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.99,1	95.0%