NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	70		Excitement	4.5 [894]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +7.1%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.7 [300]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -17.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	11	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	7	73%	0.06	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shammond Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	7	12%	-0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	21	33%	-0.14	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	0.01	16	43%	-0.10	3	-0.07	12	92%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	21	62%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	11	64%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	10	43%	-0.03	4	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	13	46%	-0.00	5	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	28.3	16.4	26.7	1.8	27.2	127.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +56.3%

BOS -9.4%

MIA +14.7%

BOS -11.8%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	16.0	15.5	79.5	100.0	101.6
season	15.6	16.3		99.3	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.5		100.7	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.0	15.3	15.4	17.8	16.3
MIA	15.8	17.5	14.6	16.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Bremer	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-20	20	15.8	16.4	-0.53	17.8	15.9	1.93
Kedrick Brown	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-20	20	17.7	16.2	1.56	17.9	15.8	2.06
Tony Battie	57	58	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-18	16	15.7	17.5	-1.88	15.7	16.6	-0.82
Eric Williams	55	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-13	6	16.1	16.7	-0.59	14.7	18.2	-3.44
Walter McCarty	33	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-14	8	17.1	15.9	1.22	16.2	15.9	0.26
Antoine Walker	69	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-10	0	15.6	19.1	-3.47	16.6	14.3	2.33
Vin Baker	28	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.19	-18	-2	-16	18.0	15.6	2.40	17.1	15.5	1.58
Tony Delk	58	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.02	-13	-7	-6	15.7	17.5	-1.73	16.3	15.6	0.70
Paul Pierce	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.07	-16	-4	-12	16.2	16.9	-0.73	15.6	18.0	-2.42
Shammond Williams	53	54	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	0.21	-28	8	-36	17.6	14.5	3.11	16.1	15.9	0.29

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	48	46	0.66	-0.16	0.81	-0.11	26	-6	32	15.7	16.4	-0.74	16.5	16.1	0.36
Vladimir Stepania	53	51	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.25	28	-8	36	16.0	16.1	-0.04	17.0	15.5	1.50
Eddie Jones	79	76	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.06	14	6	8	15.8	18.0	-2.24	16.4	15.9	0.48
Caron Butler	64	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	9	2	15.7	16.8	-1.14	16.8	15.0	1.86
Brian Grant	57	56	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	10	0	15.6	16.7	-1.05	16.9	15.4	1.45
LaPhonso Ellis	10	9	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.05	5	15	-10	10.6	16.7	-6.11	16.0	16.4	-0.37
Travis Best	69	68	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	11	-2	16.5	14.4	2.09	15.8	18.1	-2.36
Malik Allen	54	54	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	23	-26	17.3	14.2	3.06	15.3	18.0	-2.67
Rasual Butler	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	17.8	15.9	1.93	15.8	16.4	-0.53
Sean Marks	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	17.8	15.9	1.93	15.8	16.4	-0.53
Sean Lampley	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	19.7	15.9	3.89	14.7	16.4	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 108, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.9,0.98,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1	95.1%
NYK 82, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
IND 96, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%