NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	116		Excitement	11.7 [24]		MVP	Matt Bonner (TOR): +50.7%
Toronto Raptors	112		Comeback	9.2 [110]		LVP	Jalen Rose (TOR): -41.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0.46	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.38,0.45,0.46	0.12	0.36	0.02	15	78%	0.55	3	-0.09	7	86%	-0.04
Donta Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	90%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	14	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.06
Boris Diaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.04,-0.19,-0.19,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	25	51%	0.27	4	-0.27	5	40%	-0.07
Tom Gugliotta	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	12	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Obinna Ekezie	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	7	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.08	-0.20	-0.00	8	37%	-0.27	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.12

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51	0.51	0.24	0.26	0.00	9	117%	0.51	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.04	0.30	-0.03	13	59%	0.36	1	0.01	6	83%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Rafael Araujo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	8	56%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.08	-0.19	0.00	17	46%	-0.17	3	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.12	-0.16	-0.00	11	48%	0.04	5	-0.32	7	86%	-0.04
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.37,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42	-0.42	-0.09	-0.33	-0.01	17	48%	-0.22	3	-0.19	12	92%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.7	2.5	30.4	15.6	30.1	1.8	40.1	1.8	17.8	166.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +34.2%

TOR -10.9%

ATL +2.1%

ATL +30.4%

TOR -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.5	110.5	106.7	104.0
season	15.6	15.1		98.1	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.1		106.8	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	15.4	16.0	13.7	15.9	16.7	15.4
TOR	15.9	14.0	14.0	16.1	15.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Childress	97	98	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-6	16	15.0	19.5	-4.49	14.8	16.3	-1.45
Tom Gugliotta	78	77	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	1	2	15.3	15.5	-0.22	14.7	15.5	-0.72
Predrag Drobnjak	9	11	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	-6	16	12.6	15.6	-3.06	15.4	14.9	0.48
Royal Ivey	30	29	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.08	12	-8	20	14.1	15.9	-1.75	13.5	15.5	-2.00
Tyronn Lue	75	76	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.46	-8	12	-20	15.9	14.1	1.75	15.5	13.5	2.00
Donta Smith	40	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	1	2	15.7	15.1	0.56	13.7	15.6	-1.88
Al Harrington	72	74	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.42	-12	16	-28	15.8	14.3	1.49	15.1	14.4	0.73
Boris Diaw	7	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	3	-2	16.3	15.3	1.00	13.2	15.0	-1.87
Obinna Ekezie	34	34	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.05	2	2	0	15.7	15.2	0.48	15.1	14.9	0.19
Josh Smith	75	74	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	7	-10	15.0	16.2	-1.14	15.4	13.9	1.42

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	38	39	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.05	10	-14	24	14.6	15.1	-0.56	16.9	14.4	2.50
Rafael Araujo	15	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	3	-10	16.5	14.7	1.79	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Donyell Marshall	89	86	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.36	6	-10	16	14.5	17.4	-2.95	15.7	13.6	2.17
Matt Bonner	63	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-1	-2	14.8	15.1	-0.35	15.3	15.4	-0.02
Morris Peterson	61	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	4	-12	14.6	15.4	-0.78	14.3	16.9	-2.63
Jalen Rose	82	82	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.53	-2	-2	0	15.4	13.2	2.20	15.8	13.7	2.07
Rafer Alston	90	90	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.58	-2	-2	0	14.6	16.7	-2.10	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Chris Bosh	87	86	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.27	-14	10	-24	15.5	12.3	3.14	14.9	17.6	-2.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.46,0.69,0.84,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 105, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.29,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.89,0.77,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.56,0.42,0	89.4%
ATL 117, IND 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.28,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.84,0.54,0.45,0.21,0.33,0.15,0	88.9%
WAS 105, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.36,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.91,0.92,0.46,0.75,0.54,0.55,0.26,0	88.4%