NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	5.0 [856]		MVP	Michael Doleac (MIA): +8.7%
New Jersey Nets	90		Comeback	4.0 [132]		LVP	Nenad Krstic (NJN): -13.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	60%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	59%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	12	57%	0.00	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.03
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	75%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	0.01	19	54%	0.04	4	-0.09	12	58%	-0.04
Damon Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	12	42%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	83%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zoran Planinic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.04	21	51%	0.02	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.03
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.07
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	7	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	10	42%	-0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	30.3	15.4	26.4	1.8	29.0	129.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.4%

MIA +7.7%

MIA +4.7%

NJN -6.5%

MIA +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.5	120.5	102.3	104.0
season	15.7	16.0		107.9	99.2
opponent	15.6	15.5		101.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	21.0	14.6	16.3	14.9	16.5
NJN	16.9	14.2	17.1	17.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	73	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	1	14	16.4	16.9	-0.47	16.1	16.8	-0.64
Damon Jones	65	64	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.07	18	-2	20	16.1	17.5	-1.36	15.3	18.7	-3.32
Shaquille O'Neal	62	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	2	12	16.6	16.2	0.35	15.4	18.2	-2.81
Eddie Jones	52	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	5	6	16.6	16.3	0.34	15.5	17.5	-2.04
Udonis Haslem	51	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	13	-10	18.1	14.2	3.85	17.5	14.4	3.15
Shandon Anderson	47	46	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.02	7	9	-2	16.7	16.3	0.39	17.2	15.2	1.94
Christian Laettner	35	35	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.15	12	4	8	13.9	18.2	-4.35	14.1	17.7	-3.59
Michael Doleac	21	22	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	11	-6	16.6	16.4	0.19	18.2	15.6	2.58
Keyon Dooling	23	24	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.10	-2	18	-20	17.5	16.1	1.36	18.7	15.3	3.32
Alonzo Mourning	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	16.5	16.5	0.02	19.7	16.1	3.54
Wang Zhi-zhi	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	16.3	16.5	-0.15	20.0	16.2	3.84
Rasual Butler	4	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	17	-18	14.0	16.6	-2.60	20.0	16.2	3.84

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Smith	15	15	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-18	20	19.7	15.5	4.12	18.9	16.0	2.88
Zoran Planinic	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	19.7	16.1	3.54	16.5	16.5	0.02
Travis Best	24	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-17	18	17.2	15.9	1.26	17.0	16.3	0.69
Rodney Buford	20	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-12	8	16.8	16.1	0.71	15.1	16.9	-1.75
Jacque Vaughn	39	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-15	14	16.3	16.2	0.06	17.9	15.3	2.65
Jason Collins	42	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.05	-5	-11	6	15.1	17.3	-2.12	17.7	15.3	2.39
Ron Mercer	34	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	-5	-6	16.9	15.8	1.13	15.5	17.0	-1.54
Clifford Robinson	52	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.05	-14	-2	-12	16.3	16.2	0.09	15.4	18.0	-2.53
Vince Carter	72	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	-2	-12	16.0	17.4	-1.37	16.7	15.6	1.12
Nenad Krstic	59	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.14	-12	-4	-8	16.8	15.2	1.56	16.6	16.3	0.32
Jason Kidd	69	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.11	-21	5	-26	15.4	19.4	-4.04	16.1	17.8	-1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.09,0	94.3%
MIL 112, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.38,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.2%
SAC 113, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.26,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.05,0,0	94.1%