NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	5.9 [622]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +16.7%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	4.4 [143]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -13.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.03	0.02	13	81%	0.17	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	2	86%	0.05	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Scott Williams	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	18	56%	0.08	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	36%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Jason Caffey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	19	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0	50%	-0.04	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	18	61%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	3	87%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	11	36%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Amaechi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.04
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	26	42%	-0.11	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.06	0.06	13	53%	-0.05	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	3.0	30.2	20.3	29.4	2.5	33.3	148.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.1%

MIL +21.4%

MIL +9.0%

MIL +6.2%

ORL -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	15.5	121.7	113.0	100.9
season	14.9	14.6		105.9	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		100.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.6	15.2	13.0	20.1	15.3
ORL	16.4	14.8	17.0	15.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	82	82	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	1	6	15.2	16.2	-1.04	16.1	15.1	1.05
Glenn Robinson	72	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	1	6	15.7	13.6	2.07	14.9	19.5	-4.56
Sam Cassell	76	74	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	4	0	15.5	14.3	1.16	15.3	19.1	-3.83
Tim Thomas	54	53	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	4	0	16.1	14.1	1.99	16.5	15.5	0.99
Ervin Johnson	43	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	6	-4	16.8	13.9	2.85	16.7	15.5	1.21
Darvin Ham	36	37	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	-1	10	13.4	16.5	-3.05	16.0	16.1	-0.05
Lindsey Hunter	29	31	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	3	2	14.3	15.7	-1.35	18.6	14.7	3.84
Scott Williams	42	43	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	5	-2	14.1	16.2	-2.08	15.6	16.4	-0.85
Jason Caffey	26	27	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	9	-10	15.0	15.4	-0.38	16.6	15.8	0.74

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Hudson	15	16	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.07	9	-17	26	16.7	15.9	0.84	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Bo Outlaw	56	57	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.22	12	-20	32	15.4	17.0	-1.59	16.0	14.1	1.82
Andrew DeClercq	30	31	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-10	12	17.6	15.3	2.28	13.4	16.2	-2.79
Michael Doleac	13	11	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-12	16	16.8	15.9	0.86	14.4	15.4	-1.03
John Amaechi	3	3	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-4	0	22.7	15.8	6.86	12.7	15.4	-2.69
Monty Williams	13	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.26	6	-14	20	15.5	16.1	-0.58	20.3	14.4	5.86
Don Reid	32	34	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.17	-9	1	-10	14.5	16.8	-2.30	14.9	15.5	-0.57
Mike Miller	69	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	4	-16	15.6	17.2	-1.58	14.8	16.8	-1.97
Tracy McGrady	83	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.10	-16	8	-24	16.1	15.4	0.65	15.1	16.8	-1.71
Darrell Armstrong	86	84	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.05	-19	11	-30	16.2	14.0	2.17	15.1	17.2	-2.17
Pat Garrity	60	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	5	-18	16.2	15.6	0.63	16.2	13.5	2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.38,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0	94.4%
MIA 106, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MEM 98, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.09,0	93.8%