NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	106		Excitement	7.7 [320]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +10.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	1.0 [635]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -28.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.14,0.11	-0.02	0.13	0.00	9	50%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	90%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.01	14	67%	0.12	1	-0.04	12	92%	0.05
Rafer Alston	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	11	58%	0.14	2	-0.10	2	0%	-0.01
Lamond Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.05	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	15	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	15	42%	-0.06	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.03	13	62%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	48%	0.01	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.04	12	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	56%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	17	47%	-0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	9	27%	-0.09	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	7	25%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29	-0.29	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	20	31%	-0.20	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	29.4	15.4	29.4	2.3	40.7	141.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +82.2%

MIL -21.3%

MIL -7.6%

MIL -1.3%

MIL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.5	15.5	107.1	104.1	104.0
season	15.1	16.0		104.8	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.4		107.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.1	15.5	13.0	13.5	13.8
MIL	16.9	14.5	16.4	14.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	72	70	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	-3	10	12.9	16.1	-3.24	16.0	14.2	1.79
Morris Peterson	93	91	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	2	0	13.7	15.3	-1.68	15.4	16.4	-1.01
Chris Bosh	74	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	2	0	13.4	14.9	-1.50	15.8	14.5	1.26
Rafer Alston	51	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	0	4	12.6	15.0	-2.41	16.5	14.4	2.17
Donyell Marshall	56	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	6	-8	13.2	14.4	-1.21	15.0	16.1	-1.03
Rafael Araujo	31	31	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	-1	6	14.3	13.5	0.73	16.9	14.9	2.02
Milt Palacio	48	47	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	4	-4	15.0	12.6	2.41	14.4	16.5	-2.17
Matt Bonner	37	37	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.03	2	2	0	15.9	12.5	3.36	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Aaron Williams	12	12	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	3	-2	14.9	13.6	1.32	14.0	15.7	-1.70
Lamond Murray	21	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	5	-6	14.9	13.5	1.40	14.3	15.8	-1.57

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	25	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-2	0	15.2	15.6	-0.39	14.0	13.7	0.38
Michael Redd	79	80	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.26	5	-9	14	15.0	17.4	-2.33	13.5	14.9	-1.41
Dan Gadzuric	20	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.04	-9	5	-14	17.0	15.1	1.90	14.2	13.6	0.55
Marcus Fizer	36	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	1	-6	14.9	15.8	-0.95	16.4	12.3	4.09
Joe Smith	62	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-6	8	15.8	14.9	0.95	12.3	16.4	-4.09
Erick Strickland	50	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-4	4	15.6	15.4	0.18	15.5	12.0	3.44
Toni Kukoc	57	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.38	2	-6	8	15.4	15.7	-0.33	13.7	13.9	-0.17
Mo Williams	73	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-1	-2	15.6	15.2	0.39	13.1	15.6	-2.46
Desmond Mason	88	89	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	6	-16	15.6	14.6	0.99	13.4	16.7	-3.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.3,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.28,0.38,0.27,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 105, DET 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.1,0.08,0	93.4%
TOR 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.04,0	93.4%
SAC 96, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.42,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.02,0.02,0	93.2%