NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	100		Excitement	5.9 [673]		MVP	Jalen Rose (TOR): +32.4%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	41.0 [65]		LVP	Milt Palacio (TOR): -9.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.00	-0.03	13	75%	0.15	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.19,0.17,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	24	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.03
Etan Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Michael Ruffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jarvis Hayes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.10	-0.01	13	62%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Juan Dixon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,0.09,-0.05,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	12	58%	0.16	5	-0.23	2	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.25,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.23	0.02	16	70%	0.36	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.10
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.12	0.03	14	62%	0.19	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.01	13	53%	0.18	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	10	67%	0.07	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	37%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	13	41%	-0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.8	26.5	16.6	30.1	2.5	31.2	134.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +31.1%

TOR +15.7%

WAS -17.6%

TOR +21.2%

WAS -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	TOR	NBA	WAS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	15.1	15.5	107.5	109.6	104.0
season	14.7	15.1		104.7	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.8	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.5	15.2	15.1	18.1	15.7
TOR	16.1	16.9	13.7	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	57	56	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.02	12	-15	27	14.8	17.0	-2.16	15.5	14.5	1.01
Michael Ruffin	51	51	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.09	6	-9	15	15.0	16.5	-1.41	15.5	14.6	0.92
Etan Thomas	16	16	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.05	8	-11	19	14.4	15.9	-1.57	18.1	14.5	3.54
Brendan Haywood	53	54	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.11	0	-3	3	15.3	16.1	-0.79	15.0	15.3	-0.39
Antawn Jamison	87	87	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.42	-4	1	-5	15.9	11.8	4.11	15.0	17.0	-2.02
Jarvis Hayes	79	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.40	-8	5	-13	15.7	15.8	-0.13	15.1	15.6	-0.52
Jared Jeffries	38	37	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.55	-5	2	-7	16.2	15.3	0.81	14.4	15.6	-1.15
Juan Dixon	56	57	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.43	-9	6	-15	16.1	15.0	1.17	15.1	15.2	-0.19
Anthony Peeler	28	30	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.44	-15	12	-27	17.6	14.9	2.71	14.0	15.7	-1.66

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	61	60	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.35	14	-11	25	14.2	16.8	-2.56	15.8	15.4	0.49
Donyell Marshall	72	71	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.28	14	-11	25	14.6	16.8	-2.21	15.8	15.3	0.47
Jalen Rose	57	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.57	2	1	1	15.0	15.3	-0.24	15.9	15.3	0.56
Chris Bosh	85	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.40	6	-3	9	14.8	17.9	-3.05	16.0	13.0	2.96
Morris Peterson	49	51	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.69	-7	10	-17	14.7	15.6	-0.82	16.1	15.1	1.02
Lamond Murray	13	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	3	-3	14.5	15.2	-0.68	15.2	15.8	-0.61
Matt Bonner	13	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.05	-1	4	-5	18.2	14.6	3.60	14.3	15.9	-1.59
Eric Williams	33	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.09	-2	5	-7	16.0	14.6	1.39	15.1	16.0	-0.87
Milt Palacio	65	63	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.19	0	3	-3	15.8	13.7	2.08	15.2	16.6	-1.36
Rafael Araujo	22	22	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	14	-25	16.8	14.6	2.21	15.3	15.8	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.21,0.32,0.21,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.2,0.07,0.14,0.58,1	93.6%
MEM 99, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.32,0.58,1	92.3%
ATL 107, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.08,0.32,0.42,1	91.5%