NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	9.4 [110]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +21.2%
Washington Wizards	97		Comeback	1.6 [385]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): -26.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.26,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	16	64%	0.22	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.04
Steve Francis	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,-0.04,0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.15	-0.03	0.17	-0.01	26	56%	0.40	6	-0.25	5	80%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	57%	-0.02	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	12	53%	0.05	2	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Andrew DeClercq	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	40%	-0.02	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	-0.00	22	65%	0.23	1	-0.02	13	100%	0.13
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	12	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	10	52%	0.07	2	-0.13	7	86%	0.11
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.09
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	4	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	4	25%	-0.18	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.21
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.11,-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.12	-0.02	21	36%	-0.21	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	33.5	15.6	27.2	1.7	42.3	147.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +79.0%

WAS -12.5%

WAS -7.6%

WAS -7.7%

WAS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.3	15.5	106.2	99.0	104.0
season	14.3	14.7		102.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.0	12.5	16.7	15.7	15.2
WAS	14.6	17.5	13.3	12.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	87	86	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	1	4	15.4	13.7	1.69	14.2	15.2	-0.96
Doug Christie	76	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	2	2	15.8	13.2	2.53	13.8	16.3	-2.49
Tony Battie	84	84	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	3	0	15.6	12.8	2.83	14.9	10.6	4.30
Dwight Howard	76	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	7	-8	15.3	14.8	0.52	14.7	12.9	1.89
Grant Hill	74	75	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	4	-2	14.9	16.2	-1.25	15.4	10.8	4.63
Hedo Turkoglu	46	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	-5	16	14.2	16.1	-1.94	13.1	15.4	-2.30
Pat Garrity	21	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	0	6	14.8	15.3	-0.52	12.9	14.7	-1.89
Andrew DeClercq	11	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	7	-8	14.8	15.3	-0.45	11.3	14.7	-3.41
Jameer Nelson	10	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	5	-4	13.7	15.4	-1.69	15.2	14.2	0.96

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	63	62	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.13	3	-9	12	14.1	14.7	-0.51	15.4	14.8	0.61
Brendan Haywood	47	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.25	6	-12	18	13.6	15.0	-1.49	15.9	14.6	1.35
Michael Ruffin	9	8	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	20.4	13.7	6.74	13.2	15.4	-2.14
Anthony Peeler	33	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	1	-8	15.1	13.9	1.20	14.9	15.4	-0.46
Etan Thomas	49	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	2	-10	15.4	13.3	2.12	15.1	15.3	-0.22
Antawn Jamison	89	89	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-4	2	13.7	20.4	-6.74	15.4	13.2	2.14
Juan Dixon	53	53	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	2	-10	14.0	14.7	-0.75	14.5	16.1	-1.60
Gilbert Arenas	98	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	14.3	0.0	14.33	15.2	0.0	15.22
Jared Jeffries	49	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-2	-2	14.1	14.6	-0.49	15.4	15.1	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.45,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, CHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.31,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.28,0.32,0.42,0	90.8%
MIA 106, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.55,0.16,0	90.6%
TOR 92, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.11,0.25,0	90.5%