NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	9.3 [110]		MVP	Terrence Ross (TOR): +25.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	1.7 [521]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -27.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.26	0.06	0.20	0.00	12	62%	0.29	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Patrick Patterson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.01	4	70%	0.13	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Amir Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	8	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.03
Tyler Hansbrough	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Lou Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	12	52%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.06	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.18	-0.06	-0.01	9	0%	-0.21	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.19,-0.29,-0.16,-0.2,-0.15,-0.18,-0.24,-0.28	-0.17	-0.11	0.00	25	33%	-0.17	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.07

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	9	58%	0.11	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.12	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
Johnny O'Bryant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.05	0.00	10	45%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	8	65%	0.17	3	-0.21	4	100%	0.03
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	5	45%	0.00	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.17,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	21	42%	0.02	4	-0.16	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.4	31.6	15.3	25.4	2.7	36.5	135.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -14.5%

MIL -12.8%

TOR +37.1%

TOR +29.3%

TOR +10.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	17.4	13.3	15.1	98.9	93.7	104.2
season	15.6	14.5		109.1	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.0		101.0	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.5	14.7	21.8	15.4	17.4
MIL	13.6	17.4	11.4	11.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	59	62	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.44	7	-4	11	17.8	16.7	1.06	13.8	12.3	1.49
Kyle Lowry	70	71	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-2	7	17.5	17.1	0.43	13.3	13.3	-0.08
DeMar DeRozan	46	48	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	-3	9	18.8	16.0	2.85	14.2	12.3	1.89
Lou Williams	58	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	3	-3	16.4	19.0	-2.60	12.6	14.4	-1.84
Patrick Patterson	57	55	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.36	-1	4	-5	15.9	19.7	-3.77	12.0	15.0	-2.98
Terrence Ross	46	46	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	3	-3	16.0	18.7	-2.70	13.4	13.2	0.19
Jonas Valanciunas	35	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	19.4	16.2	3.15	12.8	13.6	-0.75
Greivis Vasquez	59	61	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	5	-7	18.2	16.1	2.13	13.2	13.5	-0.31
Tyler Hansbrough	35	37	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	4	-5	17.2	17.6	-0.38	14.7	12.3	2.38

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny O'Bryant	12	11	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-5	7	17.6	12.7	4.93	20.3	17.0	3.25
Zaza Pachulia	39	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-5	7	13.0	13.5	-0.51	19.5	16.1	3.37
Jared Dudley	44	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-1	-1	12.0	14.4	-2.37	18.7	16.3	2.37
Kenyon Martin	7	7	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	2	-7	18.1	12.9	5.26	15.1	17.6	-2.45
John Henson	42	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	0	-3	13.5	13.1	0.32	17.0	17.7	-0.63
Jerryd Bayless	27	27	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	1	-5	15.5	12.4	3.14	17.3	17.5	-0.21
Giannis Antetokounmpo	65	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-6	9	12.5	14.9	-2.33	17.6	17.0	0.58
Khris Middleton	64	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-6	9	12.1	15.6	-3.52	17.6	17.1	0.47
Brandon Knight	84	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-6	9	12.5	19.5	-7.09	17.4	17.2	0.26
O.J. Mayo	47	46	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	3	-9	14.4	12.2	2.20	15.7	19.1	-3.39
Ersan Ilyasova	44	45	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	5	-13	14.5	12.3	2.20	15.8	18.9	-3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.11,0.25,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, CLE 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.33,0.24,0.22,0.02,0.01,0	92.4%
BOS 100, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.34,0.19,0.05,0.16,0.02,0	92.3%
CLE 104, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.02,0	91.9%