NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	9.1 [127]		MVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): +16.3%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	3.8 [454]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -15.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.25,0.16	-0.02	0.17	-0.00	9	50%	0.20	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Kenyon Martin	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.1	-0.07	0.17	-0.00	20	42%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.06	-0.01	6	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Bryon Russell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	14	46%	-0.11	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Rodney White	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.14	0.03	-0.17	0.00	5	60%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.03	-0.09	0.02	13	52%	-0.02	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.01	9	83%	0.12	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.27,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.09	0.04	25	56%	0.28	5	-0.28	13	62%	-0.08
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	56%	0.02	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.00	13	34%	-0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	28.0	15.6	28.4	2.6	35.3	135.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +47.6%

DAL +23.2%

DAL +14.2%

DEN -40.3%

DAL +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	15.5	104.5	105.6	104.0
season	14.8	14.9		103.8	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.9	20.4	15.1	16.4	16.8
DAL	13.0	17.5	15.5	16.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	26	28	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.04	6	-8	14	15.8	17.2	-1.41	14.7	15.7	-0.98
DerMarr Johnson	13	14	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.12	1	-3	4	18.8	16.4	2.35	17.0	15.1	1.87
Marcus Camby	20	21	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-5	8	15.0	17.3	-2.28	13.6	16.0	-2.35
Greg Buckner	34	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	1	-4	15.2	17.7	-2.57	16.5	14.7	1.78
Andre Miller	74	75	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.44	10	-12	22	16.6	17.7	-1.17	15.5	14.9	0.67
Francisco Elson	39	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	0	-2	19.8	14.4	5.44	17.2	14.0	3.29
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	7	6	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	5	-12	20.0	16.5	3.51	13.8	15.5	-1.70
Rodney White	23	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-6	10	13.1	18.0	-4.96	15.0	15.6	-0.57
Kenyon Martin	88	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	16.6	29.0	-12.37	15.4	16.0	-0.58
Earl Boykins	54	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	2	-6	17.3	15.9	1.35	14.4	16.8	-2.40
Carmelo Anthony	67	67	-1.13	0.63	-1.76	-0.66	-16	14	-30	17.2	15.4	1.80	15.2	16.0	-0.72

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	86	83	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-9	20	15.4	15.7	-0.34	16.8	16.3	0.46
Erick Dampier	51	51	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-6	14	16.3	14.2	2.10	17.8	15.4	2.44
Michael Finley	81	80	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	16.1	9.0	7.14	16.7	16.9	-0.14
Dirk Nowitzki	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.49	-2	4	-6	15.6	13.7	1.84	16.5	19.6	-3.05
Jerry Stackhouse	70	70	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.44	-1	3	-4	15.6	14.9	0.67	17.4	14.3	3.18
Alan Henderson	40	39	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.17	-2	4	-6	14.0	16.5	-2.47	15.5	17.7	-2.23
Josh Howard	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	-1	4	13.9	15.8	-1.88	13.9	17.3	-3.40
Shawn Bradley	6	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	2	-2	15.5	15.4	0.08	23.2	16.4	6.82
Darrell Armstrong	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	2	-2	10.0	15.5	-5.48	0.0	17.0	-16.95
Devin Harris	17	19	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	10	-18	12.9	16.0	-3.06	16.4	16.9	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.68,0.79,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 82, MIN 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.38,0.3,0.17,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.4,0.55,0.78,0.78,0.58,1	91.6%
MIA 75, ORL 77	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.56,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.77,1	90.9%
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	90.7%